**Trader consensus assigns a 62% probability to no Cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting relative stability after earlier turnover in the second Trump administration.** Multiple officials have already exited through firings or resignations tied to performance issues, family considerations, or internal friction, but recent months show fewer such catalysts. Susie Wiles remains in her chief of staff role following a positive health update on her breast cancer treatment, while Pete Hegseth continues as defense secretary despite congressional scrutiny and discussions over his deputy. Mike Waltz, now U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, leads individual probabilities amid reports of broader ambitions, with other names such as RFK Jr. and Scott Bessent appearing on markets due to policy visibility or structural roles rather than immediate exit signals. Upcoming midterm dynamics and confirmation patterns provide the main near-term variables that could alter these implied probabilities.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডNone before 2027 61.9%
Mike Waltz 8.8%
Susie Wiles 8.0%
Pete Hegseth 7.8%
$69,237 Vol.
$69,237 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
None before 2027
62%
Mike Waltz
9%
Susie Wiles
8%
Pete Hegseth
8%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
6%
Scott Bessent
4%
Doug Burgum
3%
Brooke Rollins
2%
John Ratcliffe
2%
Russell T. Vought
2%
Marco Rubio
2%
J.D. Vance
1%
Sean Duffy
1%
Scott Turner
1%
Chris Wright
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Jamieson Greer
1%
Kelly Loeffler
1%
Howard Lutnick
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Lee Zeldin
<1%
None before 2027 61.9%
Mike Waltz 8.8%
Susie Wiles 8.0%
Pete Hegseth 7.8%
$69,237 Vol.
$69,237 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
None before 2027
$27,011 Vol.
62%
Mike Waltz
$1,000 Vol.
9%
Susie Wiles
$3,930 Vol.
8%
Pete Hegseth
$2,535 Vol.
8%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$19,359 Vol.
6%
Scott Bessent
$2,976 Vol.
4%
Doug Burgum
$1,125 Vol.
3%
Brooke Rollins
$934 Vol.
2%
John Ratcliffe
$716 Vol.
2%
Russell T. Vought
$695 Vol.
2%
Marco Rubio
$688 Vol.
2%
J.D. Vance
$730 Vol.
1%
Sean Duffy
$818 Vol.
1%
Scott Turner
$489 Vol.
1%
Chris Wright
$888 Vol.
1%
Linda McMahon
$1,094 Vol.
1%
Jamieson Greer
$682 Vol.
1%
Kelly Loeffler
$961 Vol.
1%
Howard Lutnick
$1,018 Vol.
1%
Doug Collins
$792 Vol.
1%
Lee Zeldin
$797 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.**Trader consensus assigns a 62% probability to no Cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting relative stability after earlier turnover in the second Trump administration.** Multiple officials have already exited through firings or resignations tied to performance issues, family considerations, or internal friction, but recent months show fewer such catalysts. Susie Wiles remains in her chief of staff role following a positive health update on her breast cancer treatment, while Pete Hegseth continues as defense secretary despite congressional scrutiny and discussions over his deputy. Mike Waltz, now U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, leads individual probabilities amid reports of broader ambitions, with other names such as RFK Jr. and Scott Bessent appearing on markets due to policy visibility or structural roles rather than immediate exit signals. Upcoming midterm dynamics and confirmation patterns provide the main near-term variables that could alter these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
ভলিউম
$69,237শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.**Trader consensus assigns a 62% probability to no Cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting relative stability after earlier turnover in the second Trump administration.** Multiple officials have already exited through firings or resignations tied to performance issues, family considerations, or internal friction, but recent months show fewer such catalysts. Susie Wiles remains in her chief of staff role following a positive health update on her breast cancer treatment, while Pete Hegseth continues as defense secretary despite congressional scrutiny and discussions over his deputy. Mike Waltz, now U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, leads individual probabilities amid reports of broader ambitions, with other names such as RFK Jr. and Scott Bessent appearing on markets due to policy visibility or structural roles rather than immediate exit signals. Upcoming midterm dynamics and confirmation patterns provide the main near-term variables that could alter these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
ভলিউম
$69,237শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus assigns a 62% probability to no Cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting relative stability after earlier turnover in the second Trump administration.** Multiple officials have already exited through firings or resignations tied to performance issues, family considerations, or internal friction, but recent months show fewer such catalysts. Susie Wiles remains in her chief of staff role following a positive health update on her breast cancer treatment, while Pete Hegseth continues as defense secretary despite congressional scrutiny and discussions over his deputy. Mike Waltz, now U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, leads individual probabilities amid reports of broader ambitions, with other names such as RFK Jr. and Scott Bessent appearing on markets due to policy visibility or structural roles rather than immediate exit signals. Upcoming midterm dynamics and confirmation patterns provide the main near-term variables that could alter these implied probabilities.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা