**Canada’s population revisions and immigration policy adjustments underpin trader expectations that any 2026 decline will fall short of record levels.** Statistics Canada’s September 2026 updates added roughly 300,000 people to prior estimates, primarily through improved tracking of non-permanent residents, converting what appeared as multiple quarters of decline in late 2025 and early 2026 into modest net growth or far smaller contractions. As of July 1, 2026, the population stood at 41.8 million, reflecting 0.5% annual growth—the slowest pace since the mid-1940s but still positive. Federal targets under the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan stabilize permanent resident admissions near 380,000 annually while cutting new temporary resident arrivals to 385,000 in 2026 (down sharply from prior years) to reduce the non-permanent share below 5% by end-2027. These measures continue the slowdown already underway, yet the scale of net outflows has moderated relative to earlier preliminary figures, limiting the likelihood of a calendar-year drop exceeding historical peaks. Ongoing quarterly data and the government’s commitment to calibrated reductions support the current market pricing favoring “No.”