Elon Musk's ineligibility under the constitutional requirement that presidents be natural-born U.S. citizens remains the dominant factor behind the 96.7% trader consensus against an announcement before 2027. Musk, born in South Africa, has repeatedly emphasized his focus on business operations at Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI alongside advisory roles rather than electoral pursuits, with no recent public statements or campaign infrastructure signaling a run. Historical patterns show constitutional amendments to alter eligibility face steep procedural hurdles in Congress and the states. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unforeseen reinterpretation of citizenship rules by the Supreme Court or a rare amendment process completed within the window, though both lack current momentum.