Recent fiscal legislation, including the 2025 reconciliation measure extending tax provisions while expanding defense and border funding, has driven CBO baselines projecting a $1.9 trillion deficit for fiscal year 2026, with outlays continuing to exceed revenues amid rising net interest costs. This trajectory, reinforced by limited enacted spending reductions despite administration rescissions proposals and tariff revenue gains, underpins the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Structural pressures from mandatory programs and debt service constrain reversal. Modest upside scenarios such as stronger-than-expected growth, further debt-ceiling concessions, or accelerated efficiency measures could narrow gaps by late 2026, though baseline trends make substantial deficit reduction before 2027 improbable.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড<1% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Dec 31, 2026
<1% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Dec 31, 2026
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Recent fiscal legislation, including the 2025 reconciliation measure extending tax provisions while expanding defense and border funding, has driven CBO baselines projecting a $1.9 trillion deficit for fiscal year 2026, with outlays continuing to exceed revenues amid rising net interest costs. This trajectory, reinforced by limited enacted spending reductions despite administration rescissions proposals and tariff revenue gains, underpins the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Structural pressures from mandatory programs and debt service constrain reversal. Modest upside scenarios such as stronger-than-expected growth, further debt-ceiling concessions, or accelerated efficiency measures could narrow gaps by late 2026, though baseline trends make substantial deficit reduction before 2027 improbable.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
ভলিউম
$2,472শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Recent fiscal legislation, including the 2025 reconciliation measure extending tax provisions while expanding defense and border funding, has driven CBO baselines projecting a $1.9 trillion deficit for fiscal year 2026, with outlays continuing to exceed revenues amid rising net interest costs. This trajectory, reinforced by limited enacted spending reductions despite administration rescissions proposals and tariff revenue gains, underpins the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Structural pressures from mandatory programs and debt service constrain reversal. Modest upside scenarios such as stronger-than-expected growth, further debt-ceiling concessions, or accelerated efficiency measures could narrow gaps by late 2026, though baseline trends make substantial deficit reduction before 2027 improbable.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
ভলিউম
$2,472শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent fiscal legislation, including the 2025 reconciliation measure extending tax provisions while expanding defense and border funding, has driven CBO baselines projecting a $1.9 trillion deficit for fiscal year 2026, with outlays continuing to exceed revenues amid rising net interest costs. This trajectory, reinforced by limited enacted spending reductions despite administration rescissions proposals and tariff revenue gains, underpins the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Structural pressures from mandatory programs and debt service constrain reversal. Modest upside scenarios such as stronger-than-expected growth, further debt-ceiling concessions, or accelerated efficiency measures could narrow gaps by late 2026, though baseline trends make substantial deficit reduction before 2027 improbable.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা