Traders assign a 97.3% implied probability that Trump will not resign before 2027, reflecting broad consensus on his commitment to completing the term amid stable political conditions. Primary drivers include the absence of reported health concerns, ongoing public engagement in official duties, and historical precedent where resignation remains rare absent acute crises such as impeachment proceedings or incapacity. No major legislative, judicial, or intra-party developments have emerged to alter this trajectory through late 2026. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical event requiring transfer of power, unforeseen scandals prompting congressional action, or voluntary withdrawal tied to family or strategic considerations, though none currently register as probable catalysts in market pricing.