Extensive NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no known asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 1-megaton atmospheric energy in 2026, driving the market-implied odds to 98.3% against such an event. Decades of sky surveys, refined orbital models, and real-time fireball tracking confirm that megaton-scale impacts occur roughly once per several centuries on average, with none forecasted this year. Trader consensus reflects this verified absence of threats rather than speculation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include discovery of a previously undetected long-period comet entering the inner solar system or rare trajectory miscalculations, though both face significant observational and technical barriers before year-end resolution.