Brazil's Senate has never removed an STF justice via impeachment despite repeated petitions, including those targeting Alexandre de Moraes. Procedural barriers strengthened after Justice Gilmar Mendes's December 2025 ruling limiting standing primarily to the Prosecutor-General and requiring a two-thirds Senate vote, with Senate leadership consistently declining to advance cases. A April 2026 congressional report recommended proceedings against three justices amid ethics allegations, yet no formal process has progressed to removal. Traders assign "No" a 96.6% implied probability due to these institutional thresholds, historical precedent, and the high bar for conviction before the 2027 cutoff. A post-2026 Senate majority shift could still raise the prospect if it secures supermajority support and overcomes procedural challenges.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
3% Chance
$83,546 Vol.
$83,546 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
3% Chance
$83,546 Vol.
$83,546 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil's Senate has never removed an STF justice via impeachment despite repeated petitions, including those targeting Alexandre de Moraes. Procedural barriers strengthened after Justice Gilmar Mendes's December 2025 ruling limiting standing primarily to the Prosecutor-General and requiring a two-thirds Senate vote, with Senate leadership consistently declining to advance cases. A April 2026 congressional report recommended proceedings against three justices amid ethics allegations, yet no formal process has progressed to removal. Traders assign "No" a 96.6% implied probability due to these institutional thresholds, historical precedent, and the high bar for conviction before the 2027 cutoff. A post-2026 Senate majority shift could still raise the prospect if it secures supermajority support and overcomes procedural challenges.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volumen
$83,546Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil's Senate has never removed an STF justice via impeachment despite repeated petitions, including those targeting Alexandre de Moraes. Procedural barriers strengthened after Justice Gilmar Mendes's December 2025 ruling limiting standing primarily to the Prosecutor-General and requiring a two-thirds Senate vote, with Senate leadership consistently declining to advance cases. A April 2026 congressional report recommended proceedings against three justices amid ethics allegations, yet no formal process has progressed to removal. Traders assign "No" a 96.6% implied probability due to these institutional thresholds, historical precedent, and the high bar for conviction before the 2027 cutoff. A post-2026 Senate majority shift could still raise the prospect if it secures supermajority support and overcomes procedural challenges.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$83,546Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazil's Senate has never removed an STF justice via impeachment despite repeated petitions, including those targeting Alexandre de Moraes. Procedural barriers strengthened after Justice Gilmar Mendes's December 2025 ruling limiting standing primarily to the Prosecutor-General and requiring a two-thirds Senate vote, with Senate leadership consistently declining to advance cases. A April 2026 congressional report recommended proceedings against three justices amid ethics allegations, yet no formal process has progressed to removal. Traders assign "No" a 96.6% implied probability due to these institutional thresholds, historical precedent, and the high bar for conviction before the 2027 cutoff. A post-2026 Senate majority shift could still raise the prospect if it secures supermajority support and overcomes procedural challenges.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Alexandre de Moraes nicht mehr Richter am Obersten Gerichtshof Brasiliens?
9%
Ja
Wird Lula bis zum 30. September die Ernennung einer Person zum Richter am Obersten Bundesgerichtshof Brasiliens bekannt geben?
40%
Ja
Wird die Partido Liberal (PL) die meisten Sitze bei der nächsten Wahl zum brasilianischen Senat gewinnen?
78%
Ja
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen