The Bank of England's April 30 hold at 3.75%—backed by an 8-1 Monetary Policy Committee vote—has anchored the 84.5% market-implied probability of no change at the June 18 meeting, as persistent 3.3% CPI inflation driven by Middle East energy disruptions continues to outweigh slowing wage growth. Traders price in only a 14.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike, reflecting Governor Bailey's warnings of upside inflation risks exceeding 3.5% later in 2026 if oil prices remain elevated. This stance aligns with the shift from prior rate-cut expectations to a more balanced policy path amid sticky inflation above the 2% target. Key upcoming catalysts include the April CPI release and May labor market data, which could refine the market-implied rate trajectory before the next decision.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertEntscheidung der Bank of England im Juni?
Keine Änderung 85%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 15%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$147,273 Vol.
$147,273 Vol.
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
<1%
Keine Änderung
85%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
15%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
1%
Keine Änderung 85%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 15%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$147,273 Vol.
$147,273 Vol.
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
<1%
Keine Änderung
85%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
15%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of England's April 30 hold at 3.75%—backed by an 8-1 Monetary Policy Committee vote—has anchored the 84.5% market-implied probability of no change at the June 18 meeting, as persistent 3.3% CPI inflation driven by Middle East energy disruptions continues to outweigh slowing wage growth. Traders price in only a 14.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike, reflecting Governor Bailey's warnings of upside inflation risks exceeding 3.5% later in 2026 if oil prices remain elevated. This stance aligns with the shift from prior rate-cut expectations to a more balanced policy path amid sticky inflation above the 2% target. Key upcoming catalysts include the April CPI release and May labor market data, which could refine the market-implied rate trajectory before the next decision.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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