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Welt·Taiwan

Militärkonflikt zwischen China und Taiwan vor 2027?

icon for Militärkonflikt zwischen China und Taiwan vor 2027?
Welt·Taiwan

Militärkonflikt zwischen China und Taiwan vor 2027?

Dez. 31

Dez. 31

Ja

7% Chance
Polymarket

$3,212,984 Vol.

Ja

7% Chance
Polymarket

$3,212,984 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 93% probability against a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 due to the absence of large-scale PLA force concentrations, amphibious buildups, or leadership rhetoric signaling imminent offensive operations. Beijing has maintained a gray-zone coercion strategy with reduced ADIZ incursions and routine patrols through mid-2026, favoring sustained pressure over direct conflict. Taiwan’s largest-ever Han Kuang drills in August, involving record reservist mobilization and U.S.-modeled tactics, alongside joint coast guard cooperation, reinforce defensive readiness. Analysts note prohibitive economic and military risks for China on a compressed timeline, with no diplomatic breakdowns or rapid escalations observed in recent months that would alter the baseline deterrence.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$3,212,984
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 93% probability against a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 due to the absence of large-scale PLA force concentrations, amphibious buildups, or leadership rhetoric signaling imminent offensive operations. Beijing has maintained a gray-zone coercion strategy with reduced ADIZ incursions and routine patrols through mid-2026, favoring sustained pressure over direct conflict. Taiwan’s largest-ever Han Kuang drills in August, involving record reservist mobilization and U.S.-modeled tactics, alongside joint coast guard cooperation, reinforce defensive readiness. Analysts note prohibitive economic and military risks for China on a compressed timeline, with no diplomatic breakdowns or rapid escalations observed in recent months that would alter the baseline deterrence.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$3,212,984
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Militärkonflikt zwischen China und Taiwan vor 2027?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 2 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Militärischer Zusammenstoß zwischen China und Taiwan vor 2027?" mit 7%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 7¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 7% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Militärkonflikt zwischen China und Taiwan vor 2027?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $3.2 million generiert, seit der Markt am Nov 13, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Militärkonflikt zwischen China und Taiwan vor 2027?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 2 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Dies ist ein offener Markt. Der aktuelle Spitzenreiter für „Militärkonflikt zwischen China und Taiwan vor 2027?" ist „Militärischer Zusammenstoß zwischen China und Taiwan vor 2027?" mit nur 7%. Da kein Ergebnis eine starke Mehrheit hat, sehen Händler dies als hochgradig unsicher an, was einzigartige Handelsmöglichkeiten bieten kann. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert – speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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