Ontario Premier Doug Ford has publicly reaffirmed his intent to lead the Progressive Conservative Party into the next election cycle, including remarks at the January 2026 party convention where he outlined plans for a fourth term. With the PCs holding a polling edge and no organized internal challenge emerging, traders assess the probability of an abrupt leadership exit by year-end as low. Recent developments, including stable approval ratings and opposition parties managing their own transitions, reinforce expectations of continuity through December. While health, personal decisions, or unforeseen scandals could still prompt change, current party dynamics and Ford’s electoral record support the prevailing market view that he will remain leader.