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icon for California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions?
Elections·California Midterm

California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions?

icon for California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions?
Elections·California Midterm

California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions?

46% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
46% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are California ballot measures currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property. Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

 If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market. If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No". The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot. If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market. If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California voters will decide Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above $1 billion as of January 1, 2026, alongside three opposing ballot measures funded by approximately $35 million from Bay Area billionaires aimed at blocking or diluting the levy. The wealth tax initiative qualified for the November 2026 ballot in June after collecting sufficient signatures, with revenue directed primarily to healthcare, education, and food assistance programs. Early polling showed narrow support around 52-54%, while legal analyses highlight vulnerabilities in residency rules and potential constitutional challenges. Competing campaigns, concerns over taxpayer relocation, and the simultaneous counter-propositions create balanced trader assessments of whether the tax measure prevails intact. Scheduled voter decisions on November 3 and any post-election litigation could shift outcomes.

Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are California ballot measures currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026.

Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property.

Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.



If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market.

If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".

The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution.

If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot.

If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market.

If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volumen
$0
Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jul 1, 2026, 6:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are California ballot measures currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property. Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

 If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market. If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No". The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot. If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market. If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are California ballot measures currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property. Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

 If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market. If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No". The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot. If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market. If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California voters will decide Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above $1 billion as of January 1, 2026, alongside three opposing ballot measures funded by approximately $35 million from Bay Area billionaires aimed at blocking or diluting the levy. The wealth tax initiative qualified for the November 2026 ballot in June after collecting sufficient signatures, with revenue directed primarily to healthcare, education, and food assistance programs. Early polling showed narrow support around 52-54%, while legal analyses highlight vulnerabilities in residency rules and potential constitutional challenges. Competing campaigns, concerns over taxpayer relocation, and the simultaneous counter-propositions create balanced trader assessments of whether the tax measure prevails intact. Scheduled voter decisions on November 3 and any post-election litigation could shift outcomes.

Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are California ballot measures currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026.

Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property.

Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.



If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market.

If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".

The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution.

If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot.

If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market.

If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volumen
$0
Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jul 1, 2026, 6:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are California ballot measures currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property. Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

 If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market. If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No". The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot. If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market. If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

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