Escalating U.S.-Israel military operations against Iran since February 2026 have centered on Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90 percent of Iranian crude exports and serves as the primary revenue source for Tehran’s energy sector. Recent strikes targeted military assets while preserving oil infrastructure, yet President Trump’s June threats to seize the terminal and assume control of Iran’s oil and gas markets have elevated the probability of a shift in control. Such an outcome would disrupt exports, tighten global supply, and support higher Brent and WTI benchmarks amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz tensions. Traders are monitoring FOMC signals, Treasury yield movements, and upcoming energy data releases for indications of sustained risk premia, as any blockade or occupation would represent a major escalation with direct implications for regional shipping volumes and OPEC+ dynamics.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$91,726 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
August 31
1%
September 30
4%
$91,726 Vol.
August 31
$23,708 Vol.
1%
September 30
$68,018 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Israel military operations against Iran since February 2026 have centered on Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90 percent of Iranian crude exports and serves as the primary revenue source for Tehran’s energy sector. Recent strikes targeted military assets while preserving oil infrastructure, yet President Trump’s June threats to seize the terminal and assume control of Iran’s oil and gas markets have elevated the probability of a shift in control. Such an outcome would disrupt exports, tighten global supply, and support higher Brent and WTI benchmarks amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz tensions. Traders are monitoring FOMC signals, Treasury yield movements, and upcoming energy data releases for indications of sustained risk premia, as any blockade or occupation would represent a major escalation with direct implications for regional shipping volumes and OPEC+ dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volumen
$91,726Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Israel military operations against Iran since February 2026 have centered on Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90 percent of Iranian crude exports and serves as the primary revenue source for Tehran’s energy sector. Recent strikes targeted military assets while preserving oil infrastructure, yet President Trump’s June threats to seize the terminal and assume control of Iran’s oil and gas markets have elevated the probability of a shift in control. Such an outcome would disrupt exports, tighten global supply, and support higher Brent and WTI benchmarks amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz tensions. Traders are monitoring FOMC signals, Treasury yield movements, and upcoming energy data releases for indications of sustained risk premia, as any blockade or occupation would represent a major escalation with direct implications for regional shipping volumes and OPEC+ dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$91,726Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating U.S.-Israel military operations against Iran since February 2026 have centered on Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90 percent of Iranian crude exports and serves as the primary revenue source for Tehran’s energy sector. Recent strikes targeted military assets while preserving oil infrastructure, yet President Trump’s June threats to seize the terminal and assume control of Iran’s oil and gas markets have elevated the probability of a shift in control. Such an outcome would disrupt exports, tighten global supply, and support higher Brent and WTI benchmarks amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz tensions. Traders are monitoring FOMC signals, Treasury yield movements, and upcoming energy data releases for indications of sustained risk premia, as any blockade or occupation would represent a major escalation with direct implications for regional shipping volumes and OPEC+ dynamics.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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