Republican Ashley Moody holds an 80.5% implied probability in the Florida special Senate election as the appointed incumbent seeking to complete Marco Rubio’s term through 2028. Recent polls from April and May 2026 show Moody leading Democratic contenders such as Alexander Vindman or Angie Nixon by 7 to 13 points in a state with a long Republican tilt. Primaries on August 18 will narrow the field before the November 3 general election, where Moody benefits from name recognition and the state’s partisan voting patterns. Democrats have posted stronger fundraising, yet polling averages and historical Senate results in Florida continue to favor the Republican nominee at this stage.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$37,324 Vol.
$37,324 Vol.
Republikaner
81%
Demokrat
18%
$37,324 Vol.
$37,324 Vol.
Republikaner
$19,980 Vol.
81%
Demokrat
$17,344 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican Ashley Moody holds an 80.5% implied probability in the Florida special Senate election as the appointed incumbent seeking to complete Marco Rubio’s term through 2028. Recent polls from April and May 2026 show Moody leading Democratic contenders such as Alexander Vindman or Angie Nixon by 7 to 13 points in a state with a long Republican tilt. Primaries on August 18 will narrow the field before the November 3 general election, where Moody benefits from name recognition and the state’s partisan voting patterns. Democrats have posted stronger fundraising, yet polling averages and historical Senate results in Florida continue to favor the Republican nominee at this stage.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Markt eröffnet: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Volumen
$37,324Markt eröffnet
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican Ashley Moody holds an 80.5% implied probability in the Florida special Senate election as the appointed incumbent seeking to complete Marco Rubio’s term through 2028. Recent polls from April and May 2026 show Moody leading Democratic contenders such as Alexander Vindman or Angie Nixon by 7 to 13 points in a state with a long Republican tilt. Primaries on August 18 will narrow the field before the November 3 general election, where Moody benefits from name recognition and the state’s partisan voting patterns. Democrats have posted stronger fundraising, yet polling averages and historical Senate results in Florida continue to favor the Republican nominee at this stage.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$37,324Markt eröffnet
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican Ashley Moody holds an 80.5% implied probability in the Florida special Senate election as the appointed incumbent seeking to complete Marco Rubio’s term through 2028. Recent polls from April and May 2026 show Moody leading Democratic contenders such as Alexander Vindman or Angie Nixon by 7 to 13 points in a state with a long Republican tilt. Primaries on August 18 will narrow the field before the November 3 general election, where Moody benefits from name recognition and the state’s partisan voting patterns. Democrats have posted stronger fundraising, yet polling averages and historical Senate results in Florida continue to favor the Republican nominee at this stage.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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