The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+19 to D+20 partisan voting index and 50% Democratic voter registration, underpins trader consensus around a Democratic outcome in both the special election and November general. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation created an open seat, prompting a June 16 special primary where Democratic candidates Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez advanced comfortably ahead of the leading Republican. Recent primary results and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure have reinforced this positioning. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal in a district where Democrats have long held supermajority margins, though late developments such as major candidate scandals or unusually low Democratic turnout could theoretically alter the trajectory before the August special general or November contest.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertCA-14 House Election Winner
CA-14 House Election Winner
$29,866 Vol.
$29,866 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$29,866 Vol.
$29,866 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Democratic Party
$11,290 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$18,576 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+19 to D+20 partisan voting index and 50% Democratic voter registration, underpins trader consensus around a Democratic outcome in both the special election and November general. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation created an open seat, prompting a June 16 special primary where Democratic candidates Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez advanced comfortably ahead of the leading Republican. Recent primary results and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure have reinforced this positioning. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal in a district where Democrats have long held supermajority margins, though late developments such as major candidate scandals or unusually low Democratic turnout could theoretically alter the trajectory before the August special general or November contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volumen
$29,866Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+19 to D+20 partisan voting index and 50% Democratic voter registration, underpins trader consensus around a Democratic outcome in both the special election and November general. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation created an open seat, prompting a June 16 special primary where Democratic candidates Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez advanced comfortably ahead of the leading Republican. Recent primary results and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure have reinforced this positioning. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal in a district where Democrats have long held supermajority margins, though late developments such as major candidate scandals or unusually low Democratic turnout could theoretically alter the trajectory before the August special general or November contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$29,866Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+19 to D+20 partisan voting index and 50% Democratic voter registration, underpins trader consensus around a Democratic outcome in both the special election and November general. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation created an open seat, prompting a June 16 special primary where Democratic candidates Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez advanced comfortably ahead of the leading Republican. Recent primary results and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure have reinforced this positioning. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal in a district where Democrats have long held supermajority margins, though late developments such as major candidate scandals or unusually low Democratic turnout could theoretically alter the trajectory before the August special general or November contest.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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