California's 14th congressional district ranks as a strongly Democratic seat with a Partisan Voter Index of D+19, encompassing East Bay communities such as Hayward, Livermore, and Pleasanton. Eric Swalwell's resignation triggered a 2026 special election whose June primary advanced two Democratic candidates—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to both the August 18 special general and the November general election under California's top-two system. No Republican reached the general ballot, and the district's consistent voting patterns have produced Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a Democratic winner because the November contest pits Democrat against Democrat, leaving virtually no path for Republican victory absent an extraordinary disqualifying event for both nominees.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertCA-14 Wahlsieger
CA-14 Wahlsieger
$35,737 Vol.
$35,737 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
96%
Republikanische Partei
2%
$35,737 Vol.
$35,737 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$13,981 Vol.
96%
Republikanische Partei
$21,756 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th congressional district ranks as a strongly Democratic seat with a Partisan Voter Index of D+19, encompassing East Bay communities such as Hayward, Livermore, and Pleasanton. Eric Swalwell's resignation triggered a 2026 special election whose June primary advanced two Democratic candidates—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to both the August 18 special general and the November general election under California's top-two system. No Republican reached the general ballot, and the district's consistent voting patterns have produced Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a Democratic winner because the November contest pits Democrat against Democrat, leaving virtually no path for Republican victory absent an extraordinary disqualifying event for both nominees.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volumen
$35,737Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th congressional district ranks as a strongly Democratic seat with a Partisan Voter Index of D+19, encompassing East Bay communities such as Hayward, Livermore, and Pleasanton. Eric Swalwell's resignation triggered a 2026 special election whose June primary advanced two Democratic candidates—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to both the August 18 special general and the November general election under California's top-two system. No Republican reached the general ballot, and the district's consistent voting patterns have produced Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a Democratic winner because the November contest pits Democrat against Democrat, leaving virtually no path for Republican victory absent an extraordinary disqualifying event for both nominees.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$35,737Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 14th congressional district ranks as a strongly Democratic seat with a Partisan Voter Index of D+19, encompassing East Bay communities such as Hayward, Livermore, and Pleasanton. Eric Swalwell's resignation triggered a 2026 special election whose June primary advanced two Democratic candidates—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to both the August 18 special general and the November general election under California's top-two system. No Republican reached the general ballot, and the district's consistent voting patterns have produced Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a Democratic winner because the November contest pits Democrat against Democrat, leaving virtually no path for Republican victory absent an extraordinary disqualifying event for both nominees.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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