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Politik·Globale Wahlen

Galway-West By-Election-Gewinner?

icon for Galway-West By-Election-Gewinner?
Politik·Globale Wahlen

Galway-West By-Election-Gewinner?

Noel Thomas 44%

Seán Kyne 32.8%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 10.4%

Mike Cubbard 9.1%

Polymarket

$44,518 Vol.

Noel Thomas 44%

Seán Kyne 32.8%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 10.4%

Mike Cubbard 9.1%

Polymarket

$44,518 Vol.

Sheila Garrity

$20,225 Vol.

1%

Seán Kyne

$3,490 Vol.

33%

Niall Murphy

$1,820 Vol.

<1%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich

$1,617 Vol.

10%

Orla Nugent

$1,620 Vol.

<1%

Helen Ogbu

$2,902 Vol.

7%

Denman Rooke

$1,591 Vol.

1%

Noel Thomas

$5,010 Vol.

44%

Thomas Welby

$1,676 Vol.

<1%

Mike Cubbard

$2,079 Vol.

9%

Mark Lohan

$2,488 Vol.

5%

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus prices Independent Ireland councillor Noel Thomas as the frontrunner at 44% implied probability to win the Galway West Dáil by-election on May 22, edging Fine Gael Senator Seán Kyne at 33%—a shift from last week's Irish Times/TG4/Ipsos B&A poll showing Kyne's slim first-preference lead over Thomas. The change follows a May 12 report by The Ditch alleging Kyne blackmailed and harassed a former staffer, potentially eroding government party support amid voter focus on cost-of-living pressures, housing shortages, and local issues like fuel protests, which Thomas has defended. Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich (10%) and independent Galway City Mayor Mike Cubbard (9%) follow, with Labour's Helen Ogbu at 7% in a fragmented 17-candidate field where PR-STV transfers could decide the outcome.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volumen
$44,518
Enddatum
31. März 2027
Markt eröffnet
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus prices Independent Ireland councillor Noel Thomas as the frontrunner at 44% implied probability to win the Galway West Dáil by-election on May 22, edging Fine Gael Senator Seán Kyne at 33%—a shift from last week's Irish Times/TG4/Ipsos B&A poll showing Kyne's slim first-preference lead over Thomas. The change follows a May 12 report by The Ditch alleging Kyne blackmailed and harassed a former staffer, potentially eroding government party support amid voter focus on cost-of-living pressures, housing shortages, and local issues like fuel protests, which Thomas has defended. Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich (10%) and independent Galway City Mayor Mike Cubbard (9%) follow, with Labour's Helen Ogbu at 7% in a fragmented 17-candidate field where PR-STV transfers could decide the outcome.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volumen
$44,518
Enddatum
31. März 2027
Markt eröffnet
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Galway-West By-Election-Gewinner?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 11 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Noel Thomas" mit 44%, gefolgt von „Seán Kyne" mit 33%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 44¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 44% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Galway-West By-Election-Gewinner?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $44.5K generiert, seit der Markt am Feb 26, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Galway-West By-Election-Gewinner?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 11 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Galway-West By-Election-Gewinner?" ist „Noel Thomas" mit 44%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 44% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Seán Kyne" mit 33%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Galway-West By-Election-Gewinner?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.