Forecast models from agencies including the Hong Kong Observatory and numerical guidance indicate a peak near 36–39 °C under mostly cloudy skies with light southwesterly flow and high humidity typical of Guangzhou’s subtropical monsoon climate in mid-August. This positioning reflects consistent daytime heating in the absence of significant rain or thick cloud cover, aligning with climatological maxima that often reach the upper 30s during this period. The strong market consensus at 39 °C therefore captures the narrow band most likely to be recorded by official stations. A realistic shift downward would require earlier or more widespread convective activity to limit insolation, while an upward revision to 40 °C or higher would need clearer skies and stronger subsidence to push temperatures beyond current ensemble guidance.