Recent Met Office forecast updates have established 15°C as the leading daily high for London on May 18, matching the 42.5% market-implied probability for that outcome. A stable westerly airflow combined with moderate Atlantic cloud cover is expected to cap afternoon temperatures slightly below the mid-May climatological average of 17–18°C, with ensemble models showing limited warming potential through the day. Traders are weighting these short-range meteorological signals and historical analogs heavily, as resolution hinges on the official maximum reading. Morning forecast revisions from the Met Office could further refine consensus before the peak temperature is recorded.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in London am 18. Mai?
15°C 43%
16°C 27%
14°C 21%
17°C 5.7%
$41,837 Vol.
$41,837 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
4%
14°C
21%
15°C
43%
16°C
27%
17°C
6%
18°C or higher
1%
15°C 43%
16°C 27%
14°C 21%
17°C 5.7%
$41,837 Vol.
$41,837 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
4%
14°C
21%
15°C
43%
16°C
27%
17°C
6%
18°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCRecent Met Office forecast updates have established 15°C as the leading daily high for London on May 18, matching the 42.5% market-implied probability for that outcome. A stable westerly airflow combined with moderate Atlantic cloud cover is expected to cap afternoon temperatures slightly below the mid-May climatological average of 17–18°C, with ensemble models showing limited warming potential through the day. Traders are weighting these short-range meteorological signals and historical analogs heavily, as resolution hinges on the official maximum reading. Morning forecast revisions from the Met Office could further refine consensus before the peak temperature is recorded.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen