Trader consensus heavily favors a Madrid high near 31–32 °C on August 21, reflecting numerical weather prediction consensus from models such as ECMWF and AEMET guidance showing daytime maxima around 31–32 °C under typical late-summer high-pressure conditions with light winds and minimal cloud cover. Historical August climatology places average highs near 32 °C, providing a baseline that aligns with current short-range forecasts, while the two-day lead time leaves limited room for major shifts from steering patterns or diurnal heating. Recent model runs have shown little dispersion around this range, supporting the dominant 31 °C implied probability while underscoring that any unexpected moisture influx or clearer skies could nudge readings slightly higher or lower before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Madrid am 21. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Madrid am 21. August?
31°C 51%
32°C 22%
30°C 16%
33°C 5%
NEU
NEU
21. Aug. 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
5%
30°C
16%
31°C
51%
32°C
22%
33°C
5%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
31°C 51%
32°C 22%
30°C 16%
33°C 5%
NEU
NEU
21. Aug. 2026
27°C or below
$114 Vol.
1%
28°C
$10 Vol.
1%
29°C
$42 Vol.
5%
30°C
$121 Vol.
16%
31°C
$228 Vol.
51%
32°C
$130 Vol.
22%
33°C
$47 Vol.
5%
34°C
$36 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$106 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$117 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors a Madrid high near 31–32 °C on August 21, reflecting numerical weather prediction consensus from models such as ECMWF and AEMET guidance showing daytime maxima around 31–32 °C under typical late-summer high-pressure conditions with light winds and minimal cloud cover. Historical August climatology places average highs near 32 °C, providing a baseline that aligns with current short-range forecasts, while the two-day lead time leaves limited room for major shifts from steering patterns or diurnal heating. Recent model runs have shown little dispersion around this range, supporting the dominant 31 °C implied probability while underscoring that any unexpected moisture influx or clearer skies could nudge readings slightly higher or lower before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volumen
$960Enddatum
21. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors a Madrid high near 31–32 °C on August 21, reflecting numerical weather prediction consensus from models such as ECMWF and AEMET guidance showing daytime maxima around 31–32 °C under typical late-summer high-pressure conditions with light winds and minimal cloud cover. Historical August climatology places average highs near 32 °C, providing a baseline that aligns with current short-range forecasts, while the two-day lead time leaves limited room for major shifts from steering patterns or diurnal heating. Recent model runs have shown little dispersion around this range, supporting the dominant 31 °C implied probability while underscoring that any unexpected moisture influx or clearer skies could nudge readings slightly higher or lower before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$960Enddatum
21. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a Madrid high near 31–32 °C on August 21, reflecting numerical weather prediction consensus from models such as ECMWF and AEMET guidance showing daytime maxima around 31–32 °C under typical late-summer high-pressure conditions with light winds and minimal cloud cover. Historical August climatology places average highs near 32 °C, providing a baseline that aligns with current short-range forecasts, while the two-day lead time leaves limited room for major shifts from steering patterns or diurnal heating. Recent model runs have shown little dispersion around this range, supporting the dominant 31 °C implied probability while underscoring that any unexpected moisture influx or clearer skies could nudge readings slightly higher or lower before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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