Traders have converged on an 86-87°F high for New York City on August 12 with near-certainty because National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs consistently projected a peak in that narrow range under seasonable high pressure and light winds. Official guidance from the New York forecast office placed the Central Park and LaGuardia Airport readings near the upper end of normal August maxima (historical average high around 83°F), with limited cloud cover and modest humidity supporting modest daytime heating without triggering stronger convection. The 100% market-implied probability reflects this strong model consensus and limited upside risk from unexpected marine influences or rapid destabilization. A realistic challenge would require a last-minute forecast revision from the NWS or an observational discrepancy at the resolution station exceeding typical model error margins.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in NYC am 12. August?
Höchste Temperatur in NYC am 12. August?
86-87°F 100.0%
79°F or below <1%
80-81°F <1%
82-83°F <1%
$86,861 Vol.
$86,861 Vol.
12. Aug. 2026
79°F or below
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
Yes
88-89°F
No
90-91°F
No
92-93°F
No
94-95°F
No
96-97°F
No
98°F or higher
No
86-87°F 100.0%
79°F or below <1%
80-81°F <1%
82-83°F <1%
$86,861 Vol.
$86,861 Vol.
12. Aug. 2026
79°F or below
$1,257 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$1,163 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$8,007 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$19,660 Vol.
No
86-87°F
$21,026 Vol.
Yes
88-89°F
$16,282 Vol.
No
90-91°F
$12,128 Vol.
No
92-93°F
$5,653 Vol.
No
94-95°F
$760 Vol.
No
96-97°F
$543 Vol.
No
98°F or higher
$381 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on an 86-87°F high for New York City on August 12 with near-certainty because National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs consistently projected a peak in that narrow range under seasonable high pressure and light winds. Official guidance from the New York forecast office placed the Central Park and LaGuardia Airport readings near the upper end of normal August maxima (historical average high around 83°F), with limited cloud cover and modest humidity supporting modest daytime heating without triggering stronger convection. The 100% market-implied probability reflects this strong model consensus and limited upside risk from unexpected marine influences or rapid destabilization. A realistic challenge would require a last-minute forecast revision from the NWS or an observational discrepancy at the resolution station exceeding typical model error margins.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volumen
$86,861Enddatum
12. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Yes
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on an 86-87°F high for New York City on August 12 with near-certainty because National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs consistently projected a peak in that narrow range under seasonable high pressure and light winds. Official guidance from the New York forecast office placed the Central Park and LaGuardia Airport readings near the upper end of normal August maxima (historical average high around 83°F), with limited cloud cover and modest humidity supporting modest daytime heating without triggering stronger convection. The 100% market-implied probability reflects this strong model consensus and limited upside risk from unexpected marine influences or rapid destabilization. A realistic challenge would require a last-minute forecast revision from the NWS or an observational discrepancy at the resolution station exceeding typical model error margins.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$86,861Enddatum
12. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Yes
Traders have converged on an 86-87°F high for New York City on August 12 with near-certainty because National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs consistently projected a peak in that narrow range under seasonable high pressure and light winds. Official guidance from the New York forecast office placed the Central Park and LaGuardia Airport readings near the upper end of normal August maxima (historical average high around 83°F), with limited cloud cover and modest humidity supporting modest daytime heating without triggering stronger convection. The 100% market-implied probability reflects this strong model consensus and limited upside risk from unexpected marine influences or rapid destabilization. A realistic challenge would require a last-minute forecast revision from the NWS or an observational discrepancy at the resolution station exceeding typical model error margins.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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