Latest global forecast models from agencies including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA’s GFS indicate Moscow’s August 19 maximum will likely fall in the 18–20 °C range under weakening high pressure, moderate southerly flow, and increasing mid-level cloud cover that limits daytime heating. Minor differences in simulated frontal timing and boundary-layer moisture create the tight clustering among 17–20 °C outcomes, consistent with late-summer climatology where daily maxima average near 21 °C but can vary several degrees with synoptic details. No major heat or cold advection events are projected through the short-range window, keeping probabilities relatively balanced until the next model cycle or observational update from Russian meteorological services.