Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Seattle's highest temperature on May 13 at 56-57°F, backed by official observational data from the National Weather Service at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (KSEA), the standard station for such resolutions. This outcome stems from a sharp cool-down after early May record highs of 81°F on May 4, driven by a weakening upper-level ridge that enabled persistent onshore flow, cool Pacific air advection, and low-level marine stratus clouds capping daytime heating. Forecast models from NOAA aligned with this pattern, showing limited solar insolation and temperatures stuck in the mid-50s amid typical May climatology (average high ~64°F). Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include rare post hoc data revisions from quality control audits or disputes over measurement site compliance, though none are currently indicated.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Seattle on May 13?
Highest temperature in Seattle on May 13?
56-57°F 100.0%
53°F or below <1%
54-55°F <1%
58-59°F <1%
$128,203 Vol.
$128,203 Vol.
13. Mai 2026
53°F or below
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
Yes
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72°F or higher
No
56-57°F 100.0%
53°F or below <1%
54-55°F <1%
58-59°F <1%
$128,203 Vol.
$128,203 Vol.
13. Mai 2026
53°F or below
$9,533 Vol.
No
54-55°F
$17,067 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$15,206 Vol.
Yes
58-59°F
$8,220 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$9,287 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$7,889 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$6,680 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$8,453 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$5,466 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$4,689 Vol.
No
72°F or higher
$35,711 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Seattle's highest temperature on May 13 at 56-57°F, backed by official observational data from the National Weather Service at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (KSEA), the standard station for such resolutions. This outcome stems from a sharp cool-down after early May record highs of 81°F on May 4, driven by a weakening upper-level ridge that enabled persistent onshore flow, cool Pacific air advection, and low-level marine stratus clouds capping daytime heating. Forecast models from NOAA aligned with this pattern, showing limited solar insolation and temperatures stuck in the mid-50s amid typical May climatology (average high ~64°F). Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include rare post hoc data revisions from quality control audits or disputes over measurement site compliance, though none are currently indicated.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 11, 2026, 12:33 AM ET
Volumen
$128,203Enddatum
13. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 11, 2026, 12:33 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Seattle's highest temperature on May 13 at 56-57°F, backed by official observational data from the National Weather Service at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (KSEA), the standard station for such resolutions. This outcome stems from a sharp cool-down after early May record highs of 81°F on May 4, driven by a weakening upper-level ridge that enabled persistent onshore flow, cool Pacific air advection, and low-level marine stratus clouds capping daytime heating. Forecast models from NOAA aligned with this pattern, showing limited solar insolation and temperatures stuck in the mid-50s amid typical May climatology (average high ~64°F). Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include rare post hoc data revisions from quality control audits or disputes over measurement site compliance, though none are currently indicated.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$128,203Enddatum
13. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 11, 2026, 12:33 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Seattle's highest temperature on May 13 at 56-57°F, backed by official observational data from the National Weather Service at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (KSEA), the standard station for such resolutions. This outcome stems from a sharp cool-down after early May record highs of 81°F on May 4, driven by a weakening upper-level ridge that enabled persistent onshore flow, cool Pacific air advection, and low-level marine stratus clouds capping daytime heating. Forecast models from NOAA aligned with this pattern, showing limited solar insolation and temperatures stuck in the mid-50s amid typical May climatology (average high ~64°F). Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include rare post hoc data revisions from quality control audits or disputes over measurement site compliance, though none are currently indicated.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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