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Geopolitik·Öl

Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 10. August?

icon for Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 10. August?
Geopolitik·Öl

Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 10. August?

Aug. 16

Aug. 23

Aug. 16

Aug. 23

180-199 35%

220+ 17%

200–219 6.5%

<180 0

Polymarket

$12,159 Vol.

180-199 35%

220+ 17%

200–219 6.5%

<180 0

Polymarket

$12,159 Vol.

<180

$6,149 Vol.

29%

180-199

$1,985 Vol.

35%

200–219

$762 Vol.

7%

220+

$3,264 Vol.

26%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks, including the lethal strike on the Egyptian cargo vessel Tihamah in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait around August 11-12, 2026, have heightened security risks and insurance costs, prompting carriers to weigh Suez routing against Cape of Good Hope diversions. This event, the first fatal incident tied to the group since earlier escalations amid broader Iran-related tensions, has introduced short-term volatility in weekly transits. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over how many vessels will proceed versus reroute, with market-implied odds showing a tight spread between reduced volumes under 200 and potential rebounds above that threshold. Key swing factors include carrier-specific service adjustments, real-time threat assessments, and any immediate de-escalation signals before week-end data resolution.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$12,159
Enddatum
16. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks, including the lethal strike on the Egyptian cargo vessel Tihamah in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait around August 11-12, 2026, have heightened security risks and insurance costs, prompting carriers to weigh Suez routing against Cape of Good Hope diversions. This event, the first fatal incident tied to the group since earlier escalations amid broader Iran-related tensions, has introduced short-term volatility in weekly transits. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over how many vessels will proceed versus reroute, with market-implied odds showing a tight spread between reduced volumes under 200 and potential rebounds above that threshold. Key swing factors include carrier-specific service adjustments, real-time threat assessments, and any immediate de-escalation signals before week-end data resolution.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$12,159
Enddatum
16. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Verwandte

icon for Werden weniger als 160 Schiffe die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße zwischen dem 17. und 23. August durchqueren?

Werden weniger als 160 Schiffe die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße zwischen dem 17. und 23. August durchqueren?

28%
Ja
icon for Wird es am 31. August weniger als 25 durchschnittliche tägliche Durchfahrten durch die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße geben?

Wird es am 31. August weniger als 25 durchschnittliche tägliche Durchfahrten durch die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße geben?

45%
Ja
icon for Werden zwischen dem 17. August und dem 23. August 25-49 Schiffe die Straße von Hormus passieren?

Werden zwischen dem 17. August und dem 23. August 25-49 Schiffe die Straße von Hormus passieren?

57%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 10. August?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 4 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „180-199" mit 35%, gefolgt von „<180" mit 28%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 35¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 35% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 10. August?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $12.2K generiert, seit der Markt am Aug 8, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 10. August?" ist „180-199" mit 35%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 35% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „<180" mit 28%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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