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Geopolitik·Öl

Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 17. August?

icon for Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 17. August?
Geopolitik·Öl

Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 17. August?

Aug. 16

Aug. 23

Aug. 16

Aug. 23

<160 43%

180-199 24%

160-179 19%

200+ 12%

Polymarket
NEU

<160 43%

180-199 24%

160-179 19%

200+ 12%

Polymarket
NEU

<160

$1,817 Vol.

43%

160-179

$1,137 Vol.

19%

180-199

$1,211 Vol.

24%

200+

$1,052 Vol.

12%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on commercial vessels, including the August 11 strike on the Tihamah that killed multiple crew members in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have reinforced security risks and driven the market-implied 43% probability for under 160 weekly transits. Ongoing threats, including reported blockades and consideration of transit fees, have already reduced tanker volumes by around 40% from prior levels, with daily crossings holding near 20 vessels amid rerouting to alternative routes. This aligns with stabilized but depressed activity near 266–269 transits in late July, positioning the 180–199 bin at 24% as traders price in limited near-term recovery before the August 17–23 resolution window. Heightened uncertainty around Iranian-backed actions and potential further disruptions keeps higher bins at lower implied odds.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$5,216
Enddatum
23. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on commercial vessels, including the August 11 strike on the Tihamah that killed multiple crew members in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have reinforced security risks and driven the market-implied 43% probability for under 160 weekly transits. Ongoing threats, including reported blockades and consideration of transit fees, have already reduced tanker volumes by around 40% from prior levels, with daily crossings holding near 20 vessels amid rerouting to alternative routes. This aligns with stabilized but depressed activity near 266–269 transits in late July, positioning the 180–199 bin at 24% as traders price in limited near-term recovery before the August 17–23 resolution window. Heightened uncertainty around Iranian-backed actions and potential further disruptions keeps higher bins at lower implied odds.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$5,216
Enddatum
23. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Verwandte

icon for Werden weniger als 180 Schiffe die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße zwischen dem 10. August und dem 16. August passieren?

Werden weniger als 180 Schiffe die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße zwischen dem 10. August und dem 16. August passieren?

44%
Ja
icon for Wird es am 31. August weniger als 25 durchschnittliche tägliche Durchfahrten durch die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße geben?

Wird es am 31. August weniger als 25 durchschnittliche tägliche Durchfahrten durch die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße geben?

45%
Ja
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Werden zwischen dem 17. August und dem 23. August 25-49 Schiffe die Straße von Hormus passieren?

57%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 17. August?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 4 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „<160" mit 43%, gefolgt von „180-199" mit 24%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 43¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 43% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 17. August?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Aug 14, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 17. August?" ist „<160" mit 43%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 43% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „180-199" mit 24%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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