Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and renewed focus on Saudi-linked vessels have stabilized but capped weekly transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait near 260–290 in late September, with preliminary figures showing 290 passages in the week ending September 27 versus 264 the prior week. Traders assign the highest implied probability (72%) to the 190–209 band because selective avoidance by some carriers, AIS-dark operations by others, and the ongoing embargo on Saudi-affiliated traffic continue to suppress volumes below pre-2023 norms despite Houthi statements that non-Saudi commercial navigation remains safe. Elevated Suez Canal usage driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions has supported a partial rebound in Red Sea routing, yet persistent regional risks and month-on-month declines from earlier 2026 peaks keep the distribution centered in the low-200s range. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation around the October 5–11 window or further clarifications from Houthi or U.S. channels on targeting rules.