Israel's airspace has undergone repeated temporary closures and phased reopenings since early 2026 amid direct exchanges with Iran, including US-supported strikes and Iranian missile/drone responses, alongside threats from Hezbollah and Houthi launches. As of mid-August 2026 the Tel Aviv FIR remains open for civilian operations following the breakdown of a US-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz, though EASA continues to flag elevated risks and most major international carriers have not resumed regular service. Trader assessments of near-term closure probabilities hinge on any fresh Iranian or proxy barrages, Israeli security assessments by the Transport Ministry, and diplomatic signals that could de-escalate or intensify regional strikes. Scheduled regional developments, such as ongoing Lebanon-Israel ceasefire implementation and potential further Gulf-state coordination, remain key variables that could trigger short-notice NOTAMs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$27,034,814 Vol.
15. Juli 2026
15. August
<1%
31. August
6%
$27,034,814 Vol.
15. August
$986,448 Vol.
<1%
31. August
$1,025,181 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's airspace has undergone repeated temporary closures and phased reopenings since early 2026 amid direct exchanges with Iran, including US-supported strikes and Iranian missile/drone responses, alongside threats from Hezbollah and Houthi launches. As of mid-August 2026 the Tel Aviv FIR remains open for civilian operations following the breakdown of a US-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz, though EASA continues to flag elevated risks and most major international carriers have not resumed regular service. Trader assessments of near-term closure probabilities hinge on any fresh Iranian or proxy barrages, Israeli security assessments by the Transport Ministry, and diplomatic signals that could de-escalate or intensify regional strikes. Scheduled regional developments, such as ongoing Lebanon-Israel ceasefire implementation and potential further Gulf-state coordination, remain key variables that could trigger short-notice NOTAMs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volumen
$27,034,814Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's airspace has undergone repeated temporary closures and phased reopenings since early 2026 amid direct exchanges with Iran, including US-supported strikes and Iranian missile/drone responses, alongside threats from Hezbollah and Houthi launches. As of mid-August 2026 the Tel Aviv FIR remains open for civilian operations following the breakdown of a US-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz, though EASA continues to flag elevated risks and most major international carriers have not resumed regular service. Trader assessments of near-term closure probabilities hinge on any fresh Iranian or proxy barrages, Israeli security assessments by the Transport Ministry, and diplomatic signals that could de-escalate or intensify regional strikes. Scheduled regional developments, such as ongoing Lebanon-Israel ceasefire implementation and potential further Gulf-state coordination, remain key variables that could trigger short-notice NOTAMs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$27,034,814Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's airspace has undergone repeated temporary closures and phased reopenings since early 2026 amid direct exchanges with Iran, including US-supported strikes and Iranian missile/drone responses, alongside threats from Hezbollah and Houthi launches. As of mid-August 2026 the Tel Aviv FIR remains open for civilian operations following the breakdown of a US-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz, though EASA continues to flag elevated risks and most major international carriers have not resumed regular service. Trader assessments of near-term closure probabilities hinge on any fresh Iranian or proxy barrages, Israeli security assessments by the Transport Ministry, and diplomatic signals that could de-escalate or intensify regional strikes. Scheduled regional developments, such as ongoing Lebanon-Israel ceasefire implementation and potential further Gulf-state coordination, remain key variables that could trigger short-notice NOTAMs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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