The market assigns a 99.8% implied probability that Jones Act domestic shipping requirements will not be removed by June 30, reflecting the law's deep entrenchment since 1920 and the absence of any viable legislative pathway for permanent repeal in the remaining six weeks. Recent temporary waivers, including a 60-day measure in March and a 90-day extension in April tied to Iran conflict-driven energy disruptions, have allowed limited foreign-flagged shipments of oil, natural gas, and fertilizer without altering the core U.S.-build, ownership, flagging, and crew mandates. Maritime unions and domestic shipbuilders continue to defend the statute on national security and employment grounds, while no repeal bills have advanced through Congress. Trader consensus therefore embeds the realistic barriers to statutory change and the time-bound nature of executive waivers. A sudden, severe supply crisis could theoretically trigger broader action, though such tail risks appear remote given the compressed timeline to resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$52,403 Vol.
$52,403 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Ja
$52,403 Vol.
$52,403 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The market assigns a 99.8% implied probability that Jones Act domestic shipping requirements will not be removed by June 30, reflecting the law's deep entrenchment since 1920 and the absence of any viable legislative pathway for permanent repeal in the remaining six weeks. Recent temporary waivers, including a 60-day measure in March and a 90-day extension in April tied to Iran conflict-driven energy disruptions, have allowed limited foreign-flagged shipments of oil, natural gas, and fertilizer without altering the core U.S.-build, ownership, flagging, and crew mandates. Maritime unions and domestic shipbuilders continue to defend the statute on national security and employment grounds, while no repeal bills have advanced through Congress. Trader consensus therefore embeds the realistic barriers to statutory change and the time-bound nature of executive waivers. A sudden, severe supply crisis could theoretically trigger broader action, though such tail risks appear remote given the compressed timeline to resolution.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
Volumen
$52,403Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The market assigns a 99.8% implied probability that Jones Act domestic shipping requirements will not be removed by June 30, reflecting the law's deep entrenchment since 1920 and the absence of any viable legislative pathway for permanent repeal in the remaining six weeks. Recent temporary waivers, including a 60-day measure in March and a 90-day extension in April tied to Iran conflict-driven energy disruptions, have allowed limited foreign-flagged shipments of oil, natural gas, and fertilizer without altering the core U.S.-build, ownership, flagging, and crew mandates. Maritime unions and domestic shipbuilders continue to defend the statute on national security and employment grounds, while no repeal bills have advanced through Congress. Trader consensus therefore embeds the realistic barriers to statutory change and the time-bound nature of executive waivers. A sudden, severe supply crisis could theoretically trigger broader action, though such tail risks appear remote given the compressed timeline to resolution.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$52,403Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The market assigns a 99.8% implied probability that Jones Act domestic shipping requirements will not be removed by June 30, reflecting the law's deep entrenchment since 1920 and the absence of any viable legislative pathway for permanent repeal in the remaining six weeks. Recent temporary waivers, including a 60-day measure in March and a 90-day extension in April tied to Iran conflict-driven energy disruptions, have allowed limited foreign-flagged shipments of oil, natural gas, and fertilizer without altering the core U.S.-build, ownership, flagging, and crew mandates. Maritime unions and domestic shipbuilders continue to defend the statute on national security and employment grounds, while no repeal bills have advanced through Congress. Trader consensus therefore embeds the realistic barriers to statutory change and the time-bound nature of executive waivers. A sudden, severe supply crisis could theoretically trigger broader action, though such tail risks appear remote given the compressed timeline to resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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