Recent forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum temperature near 19–22°C in Qingdao on September 12, driven by southerly flow, moderate humidity, and limited overnight radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies. This range aligns with climatological September averages for the coastal Shandong location, where sea breezes typically moderate extremes. Trader positioning favoring 15°C or below at 49.5% implied probability likely reflects uncertainty in short-range model spreads, potential for localized urban or station-specific readings, and historical variability in early-autumn frontal passages. Upcoming National Meteorological Center updates and any revised ECMWF or GFS runs over the next 48 hours represent key catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Qingdao am 12. September?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Qingdao am 12. September?
25°C oder höher 47%
16°C 40%
18°C 39%
20°C 39%
NEU
NEU
12. Sep. 2026
15°C oder weniger
28%
16°C
40%
17°C
26%
18°C
39%
19°C
24%
20°C
39%
21°C
39%
22°C
39%
23°C
39%
24°C
39%
25°C oder höher
47%
25°C oder höher 47%
16°C 40%
18°C 39%
20°C 39%
NEU
NEU
12. Sep. 2026
15°C oder weniger
$0 Vol.
28%
16°C
$0 Vol.
40%
17°C
$0 Vol.
26%
18°C
$0 Vol.
39%
19°C
$10 Vol.
24%
20°C
$0 Vol.
39%
21°C
$0 Vol.
39%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C
$0 Vol.
39%
25°C oder höher
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum temperature near 19–22°C in Qingdao on September 12, driven by southerly flow, moderate humidity, and limited overnight radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies. This range aligns with climatological September averages for the coastal Shandong location, where sea breezes typically moderate extremes. Trader positioning favoring 15°C or below at 49.5% implied probability likely reflects uncertainty in short-range model spreads, potential for localized urban or station-specific readings, and historical variability in early-autumn frontal passages. Upcoming National Meteorological Center updates and any revised ECMWF or GFS runs over the next 48 hours represent key catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volumen
$10Enddatum
12. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum temperature near 19–22°C in Qingdao on September 12, driven by southerly flow, moderate humidity, and limited overnight radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies. This range aligns with climatological September averages for the coastal Shandong location, where sea breezes typically moderate extremes. Trader positioning favoring 15°C or below at 49.5% implied probability likely reflects uncertainty in short-range model spreads, potential for localized urban or station-specific readings, and historical variability in early-autumn frontal passages. Upcoming National Meteorological Center updates and any revised ECMWF or GFS runs over the next 48 hours represent key catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$10Enddatum
12. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum temperature near 19–22°C in Qingdao on September 12, driven by southerly flow, moderate humidity, and limited overnight radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies. This range aligns with climatological September averages for the coastal Shandong location, where sea breezes typically moderate extremes. Trader positioning favoring 15°C or below at 49.5% implied probability likely reflects uncertainty in short-range model spreads, potential for localized urban or station-specific readings, and historical variability in early-autumn frontal passages. Upcoming National Meteorological Center updates and any revised ECMWF or GFS runs over the next 48 hours represent key catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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