Recent model runs show persistent uncertainty in the strength of high pressure and northeasterly flow over southern Ontario, driving the near-even split between market-implied odds for a minimum of 2°C or below versus 12°C or higher. Official forecasts from Environment Canada and GFS ensembles currently point to partly cloudy conditions with overnight lows near 10°C on September 22, supported by dry air and winds of 15–25 km/h that limit radiational cooling. Historical September minima in Toronto average around 12–13°C, so any deviation in steering patterns or cloud cover could shift outcomes. Updated model guidance and official briefings expected within the next 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Toronto am 22. September?
2°C oder niedriger 85%
12°C oder höher 84%
3°C 39%
4°C 39%
2°C oder niedriger
85%
3°C
39%
4°C
39%
5°C
21%
6°C
21%
7°C
22%
8°C
22%
9°C
21%
10°C
20%
11°C
20%
12°C oder höher
84%
2°C oder niedriger 85%
12°C oder höher 84%
3°C 39%
4°C 39%
2°C oder niedriger
85%
3°C
39%
4°C
39%
5°C
21%
6°C
21%
7°C
22%
8°C
22%
9°C
21%
10°C
20%
11°C
20%
12°C oder höher
84%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 20, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent model runs show persistent uncertainty in the strength of high pressure and northeasterly flow over southern Ontario, driving the near-even split between market-implied odds for a minimum of 2°C or below versus 12°C or higher. Official forecasts from Environment Canada and GFS ensembles currently point to partly cloudy conditions with overnight lows near 10°C on September 22, supported by dry air and winds of 15–25 km/h that limit radiational cooling. Historical September minima in Toronto average around 12–13°C, so any deviation in steering patterns or cloud cover could shift outcomes. Updated model guidance and official briefings expected within the next 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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