Recent high-pressure dominance and clear skies over the Iberian Peninsula have driven a steady warming trend, with official forecasts from sources like AEMET and ensemble models showing Madrid's September 20 maximum likely reaching 28–30°C under light easterly winds and dry conditions. This setup favors 31°C as the leading market outcome at 53.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on modest upward model adjustments and historical late-summer peaks, while 32°C at 33.5% captures potential for localized heating or slight forecast revisions. Low precipitation risk and stable pressure readings reduce downside variance below 30°C. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs ahead of the date will provide the next key data points for refining these probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Madrid am 20. September?
Höchste Temperatur in Madrid am 20. September?
31°C 59%
32°C 34%
30°C 8%
33°C 4%
NEU
NEU
20. Sep. 2026
25°C oder niedriger
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
2%
30°C
8%
31°C
59%
32°C
34%
33°C
4%
34°C
2%
35°C oder höher
<1%
31°C 59%
32°C 34%
30°C 8%
33°C 4%
NEU
NEU
20. Sep. 2026
25°C oder niedriger
$181 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$155 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$63 Vol.
1%
28°C
$0 Vol.
2%
29°C
$0 Vol.
2%
30°C
$207 Vol.
8%
31°C
$434 Vol.
59%
32°C
$164 Vol.
34%
33°C
$9 Vol.
4%
34°C
$0 Vol.
2%
35°C oder höher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent high-pressure dominance and clear skies over the Iberian Peninsula have driven a steady warming trend, with official forecasts from sources like AEMET and ensemble models showing Madrid's September 20 maximum likely reaching 28–30°C under light easterly winds and dry conditions. This setup favors 31°C as the leading market outcome at 53.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on modest upward model adjustments and historical late-summer peaks, while 32°C at 33.5% captures potential for localized heating or slight forecast revisions. Low precipitation risk and stable pressure readings reduce downside variance below 30°C. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs ahead of the date will provide the next key data points for refining these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$1,224Enddatum
20. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent high-pressure dominance and clear skies over the Iberian Peninsula have driven a steady warming trend, with official forecasts from sources like AEMET and ensemble models showing Madrid's September 20 maximum likely reaching 28–30°C under light easterly winds and dry conditions. This setup favors 31°C as the leading market outcome at 53.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on modest upward model adjustments and historical late-summer peaks, while 32°C at 33.5% captures potential for localized heating or slight forecast revisions. Low precipitation risk and stable pressure readings reduce downside variance below 30°C. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs ahead of the date will provide the next key data points for refining these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,224Enddatum
20. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent high-pressure dominance and clear skies over the Iberian Peninsula have driven a steady warming trend, with official forecasts from sources like AEMET and ensemble models showing Madrid's September 20 maximum likely reaching 28–30°C under light easterly winds and dry conditions. This setup favors 31°C as the leading market outcome at 53.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on modest upward model adjustments and historical late-summer peaks, while 32°C at 33.5% captures potential for localized heating or slight forecast revisions. Low precipitation risk and stable pressure readings reduce downside variance below 30°C. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs ahead of the date will provide the next key data points for refining these probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen