**Recent forecasts and the unusually cool, rainy September pattern in São Paulo are the main drivers behind the market-implied probabilities, which heavily favor a daily maximum of 21°C or below (42% implied probability) for September 20, 2026.** Multiple models project a high near 22–25°C, with several (including WindBorne and some GFS runs) centering on 22–24°C under overcast skies and light rain or showers. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation limit daytime heating, while a northerly or variable wind flow and the broader cool anomaly—Sao Paulo has already seen the rainiest September in 83 years, running ~7–8°C below historical averages—further suppress temperatures. Historical September maxima average ~23–24°C, but this season’s entrenched cooler, wetter regime (driven by frequent frontal passages) has shifted trader consensus toward the lower end of the distribution. Upcoming model updates and any last-minute shifts in cloud/rain timing remain the key variables that could adjust these odds before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Sao Paulo am 20. September?
Höchste Temperatur in Sao Paulo am 20. September?
21°C oder weniger 42%
22°C 15%
24°C 14%
23°C 12%
NEU
NEU
20. Sep. 2026
21°C oder weniger
42%
22°C
15%
23°C
12%
24°C
14%
25°C
9%
26°C
6%
27°C
6%
28°C
5%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C oder höher
<1%
21°C oder weniger 42%
22°C 15%
24°C 14%
23°C 12%
NEU
NEU
20. Sep. 2026
21°C oder weniger
$1,146 Vol.
42%
22°C
$321 Vol.
15%
23°C
$104 Vol.
12%
24°C
$72 Vol.
14%
25°C
$82 Vol.
9%
26°C
$547 Vol.
6%
27°C
$629 Vol.
6%
28°C
$222 Vol.
5%
29°C
$41 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$96 Vol.
<1%
31°C oder höher
$96 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts and the unusually cool, rainy September pattern in São Paulo are the main drivers behind the market-implied probabilities, which heavily favor a daily maximum of 21°C or below (42% implied probability) for September 20, 2026.**
Multiple models project a high near 22–25°C, with several (including WindBorne and some GFS runs) centering on 22–24°C under overcast skies and light rain or showers. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation limit daytime heating, while a northerly or variable wind flow and the broader cool anomaly—Sao Paulo has already seen the rainiest September in 83 years, running ~7–8°C below historical averages—further suppress temperatures. Historical September maxima average ~23–24°C, but this season’s entrenched cooler, wetter regime (driven by frequent frontal passages) has shifted trader consensus toward the lower end of the distribution.
Upcoming model updates and any last-minute shifts in cloud/rain timing remain the key variables that could adjust these odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 18, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volumen
$3,355Enddatum
20. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 18, 2026, 8:55 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts and the unusually cool, rainy September pattern in São Paulo are the main drivers behind the market-implied probabilities, which heavily favor a daily maximum of 21°C or below (42% implied probability) for September 20, 2026.**
Multiple models project a high near 22–25°C, with several (including WindBorne and some GFS runs) centering on 22–24°C under overcast skies and light rain or showers. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation limit daytime heating, while a northerly or variable wind flow and the broader cool anomaly—Sao Paulo has already seen the rainiest September in 83 years, running ~7–8°C below historical averages—further suppress temperatures. Historical September maxima average ~23–24°C, but this season’s entrenched cooler, wetter regime (driven by frequent frontal passages) has shifted trader consensus toward the lower end of the distribution.
Upcoming model updates and any last-minute shifts in cloud/rain timing remain the key variables that could adjust these odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$3,355Enddatum
20. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 18, 2026, 8:55 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts and the unusually cool, rainy September pattern in São Paulo are the main drivers behind the market-implied probabilities, which heavily favor a daily maximum of 21°C or below (42% implied probability) for September 20, 2026.** Multiple models project a high near 22–25°C, with several (including WindBorne and some GFS runs) centering on 22–24°C under overcast skies and light rain or showers. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation limit daytime heating, while a northerly or variable wind flow and the broader cool anomaly—Sao Paulo has already seen the rainiest September in 83 years, running ~7–8°C below historical averages—further suppress temperatures. Historical September maxima average ~23–24°C, but this season’s entrenched cooler, wetter regime (driven by frequent frontal passages) has shifted trader consensus toward the lower end of the distribution. Upcoming model updates and any last-minute shifts in cloud/rain timing remain the key variables that could adjust these odds before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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