Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate Shanghai will experience increasing cloud cover and a 35-50% chance of showers or thunderstorms on September 19, limiting solar insolation and capping daytime heating. These conditions align with the market's strong emphasis on a 28°C high (51% implied probability), as reduced radiative forcing and evaporative cooling from precipitation typically suppress peaks by 1-2°C relative to clear-sky baselines. Model runs show consensus around 29-30°C under partly cloudy scenarios, yet persistent northeasterly flow and higher humidity maintain downside risk toward 27°C. Traders appear to weigh the elevated precipitation probability heavily against seasonal September averages near 28-29°C, with the next CMA forecast updates likely to refine resolution thresholds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Shanghai am 19. September?
Höchste Temperatur in Shanghai am 19. September?
28°C 50%
29°C 29%
27°C 14%
30°C 12%
NEU
NEU
19. Sep. 2026
25°C oder weniger
<1%
26°C
5%
27°C
14%
28°C
50%
29°C
29%
30°C
12%
31°C
6%
32°C
3%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C oder höher
<1%
28°C 50%
29°C 29%
27°C 14%
30°C 12%
NEU
NEU
19. Sep. 2026
25°C oder weniger
$0 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$10 Vol.
5%
27°C
$0 Vol.
14%
28°C
$330 Vol.
50%
29°C
$62 Vol.
29%
30°C
$10 Vol.
12%
31°C
$0 Vol.
6%
32°C
$0 Vol.
3%
33°C
$131 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$241 Vol.
<1%
35°C oder höher
$200 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate Shanghai will experience increasing cloud cover and a 35-50% chance of showers or thunderstorms on September 19, limiting solar insolation and capping daytime heating. These conditions align with the market's strong emphasis on a 28°C high (51% implied probability), as reduced radiative forcing and evaporative cooling from precipitation typically suppress peaks by 1-2°C relative to clear-sky baselines. Model runs show consensus around 29-30°C under partly cloudy scenarios, yet persistent northeasterly flow and higher humidity maintain downside risk toward 27°C. Traders appear to weigh the elevated precipitation probability heavily against seasonal September averages near 28-29°C, with the next CMA forecast updates likely to refine resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volumen
$983Enddatum
19. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate Shanghai will experience increasing cloud cover and a 35-50% chance of showers or thunderstorms on September 19, limiting solar insolation and capping daytime heating. These conditions align with the market's strong emphasis on a 28°C high (51% implied probability), as reduced radiative forcing and evaporative cooling from precipitation typically suppress peaks by 1-2°C relative to clear-sky baselines. Model runs show consensus around 29-30°C under partly cloudy scenarios, yet persistent northeasterly flow and higher humidity maintain downside risk toward 27°C. Traders appear to weigh the elevated precipitation probability heavily against seasonal September averages near 28-29°C, with the next CMA forecast updates likely to refine resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$983Enddatum
19. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate Shanghai will experience increasing cloud cover and a 35-50% chance of showers or thunderstorms on September 19, limiting solar insolation and capping daytime heating. These conditions align with the market's strong emphasis on a 28°C high (51% implied probability), as reduced radiative forcing and evaporative cooling from precipitation typically suppress peaks by 1-2°C relative to clear-sky baselines. Model runs show consensus around 29-30°C under partly cloudy scenarios, yet persistent northeasterly flow and higher humidity maintain downside risk toward 27°C. Traders appear to weigh the elevated precipitation probability heavily against seasonal September averages near 28-29°C, with the next CMA forecast updates likely to refine resolution thresholds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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