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icon for Große US-Bankenrettung vor 2027?

Große US-Bankenrettung vor 2027?

icon for Große US-Bankenrettung vor 2027?

Große US-Bankenrettung vor 2027?

Jan. 1, 2027

Jan. 1, 2027

Ja

7% Chance
Polymarket
NEU

Ja

7% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns. -Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility -Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank -A U.S. Treasury capital injection -A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs. Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify. If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.Major U.S. banks' robust capitalization underpins the 93.5% market-implied odds against a bailout before 2027. The Federal Reserve's June 2026 stress tests showed all 32 large institutions absorbing $708 billion in hypothetical losses from a severe recession—with unemployment at 10%, commercial real estate prices down 39%, and home prices falling 30%—while aggregate CET1 ratios declined just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2%, remaining well above the 4.5% minimum plus buffers. Current stress capital buffers are frozen through 2027 pending model revisions. This resilience, backed by elevated interest income and post-crisis reforms, reflects trader consensus on systemic stability. Still, extreme tail risks such as a deeper downturn exceeding modeled scenarios or contagion from smaller institutions could alter outcomes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.

-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition

An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.

Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.

If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns. -Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility -Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank -A U.S. Treasury capital injection -A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs. Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify. If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
Volumen
$4,183
Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ET

Abwickler

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns. -Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility -Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank -A U.S. Treasury capital injection -A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs. Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify. If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.Major U.S. banks' robust capitalization underpins the 93.5% market-implied odds against a bailout before 2027. The Federal Reserve's June 2026 stress tests showed all 32 large institutions absorbing $708 billion in hypothetical losses from a severe recession—with unemployment at 10%, commercial real estate prices down 39%, and home prices falling 30%—while aggregate CET1 ratios declined just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2%, remaining well above the 4.5% minimum plus buffers. Current stress capital buffers are frozen through 2027 pending model revisions. This resilience, backed by elevated interest income and post-crisis reforms, reflects trader consensus on systemic stability. Still, extreme tail risks such as a deeper downturn exceeding modeled scenarios or contagion from smaller institutions could alter outcomes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.

-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition

An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.

Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.

If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns. -Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility -Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank -A U.S. Treasury capital injection -A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs. Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify. If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
Volumen
$4,183
Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ET

Abwickler

0x65070BE91...

Verwandte

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Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Große US-Bankenrettung vor 2027?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 2 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Große US-Bankenrettung vor 2027?" mit 7%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 7¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 7% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Große US-Bankenrettung vor 2027?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Nov 12, 2025. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Große US-Bankenrettung vor 2027?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 2 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Dies ist ein offener Markt. Der aktuelle Spitzenreiter für „Große US-Bankenrettung vor 2027?" ist „Große US-Bankenrettung vor 2027?" mit nur 7%. Da kein Ergebnis eine starke Mehrheit hat, sehen Händler dies als hochgradig unsicher an, was einzigartige Handelsmöglichkeiten bieten kann. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert – speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Große US-Bankenrettung vor 2027?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.