Trader consensus favoring no major (VEI ≥6) eruption in 2026 rests on the low historical frequency of such events—roughly once every 50–100 years globally—and the absence of any volcano currently exhibiting the sustained precursory signals, such as rapid caldera inflation or escalating deep seismicity, needed for Plinian-scale explosivity. Ongoing activity remains limited to lower-intensity systems like episodic fountaining at Kīlauea or ash emissions from stratovolcanoes such as Fuego and Semeru, none of which approach the ejecta volumes or column heights required for VEI 6. With only three months remaining, the window for rapid escalation is narrow. A credible challenge would require an unexpected acceleration at a restless caldera like Campi Flegrei, though current monitoring shows no such trajectory.