Trader consensus on a 74% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026 reflects the market’s strict resolution thresholds, which require a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale, a VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, an M8.5+ earthquake, or a 10-kiloton+ meteor impact before year-end. NOAA’s 2026 Atlantic outlook indicates a below-normal hurricane season with limited potential for major U.S. landfalls, while USGS monitoring shows no elevated alerts for events meeting these magnitudes. These forecasts align with historical recurrence intervals spanning decades to centuries for such extremes. Upcoming NHC seasonal updates and ongoing seismic-volcanic surveillance through fall remain the key data points that could shift implied odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNaturkatastrophe 2026?
Naturkatastrophe 2026?
Ja
26% Chance
$240,234 Vol.
$240,234 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
26% Chance
$240,234 Vol.
$240,234 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on a 74% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026 reflects the market’s strict resolution thresholds, which require a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale, a VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, an M8.5+ earthquake, or a 10-kiloton+ meteor impact before year-end. NOAA’s 2026 Atlantic outlook indicates a below-normal hurricane season with limited potential for major U.S. landfalls, while USGS monitoring shows no elevated alerts for events meeting these magnitudes. These forecasts align with historical recurrence intervals spanning decades to centuries for such extremes. Upcoming NHC seasonal updates and ongoing seismic-volcanic surveillance through fall remain the key data points that could shift implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volumen
$240,234Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on a 74% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026 reflects the market’s strict resolution thresholds, which require a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale, a VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, an M8.5+ earthquake, or a 10-kiloton+ meteor impact before year-end. NOAA’s 2026 Atlantic outlook indicates a below-normal hurricane season with limited potential for major U.S. landfalls, while USGS monitoring shows no elevated alerts for events meeting these magnitudes. These forecasts align with historical recurrence intervals spanning decades to centuries for such extremes. Upcoming NHC seasonal updates and ongoing seismic-volcanic surveillance through fall remain the key data points that could shift implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volumen
$240,234Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on a 74% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026 reflects the market’s strict resolution thresholds, which require a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale, a VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, an M8.5+ earthquake, or a 10-kiloton+ meteor impact before year-end. NOAA’s 2026 Atlantic outlook indicates a below-normal hurricane season with limited potential for major U.S. landfalls, while USGS monitoring shows no elevated alerts for events meeting these magnitudes. These forecasts align with historical recurrence intervals spanning decades to centuries for such extremes. Upcoming NHC seasonal updates and ongoing seismic-volcanic surveillance through fall remain the key data points that could shift implied odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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