Trader consensus implies a 71.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the complete absence of such events through mid-May per authoritative sources: no Category 5 hurricane landfall on the U.S. per National Hurricane Center records, no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake worldwide via U.S. Geological Survey data, no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption according to the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, and no meteor airburst exceeding 10 kilotons yield from NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. These extreme thresholds reflect rare phenomena—global M8.5+ quakes occur roughly once per decade, VEI ≥6 eruptions even less frequently—bolstered by neutral-to-below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University ahead of the June 1 start. Upcoming seasonal peaks and model updates could shift odds, though historical baselines favor continuation of the quiet trend.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNaturkatastrophe 2026?
Naturkatastrophe 2026?
Ja
$217,697 Vol.
$217,697 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$217,697 Vol.
$217,697 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus implies a 71.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the complete absence of such events through mid-May per authoritative sources: no Category 5 hurricane landfall on the U.S. per National Hurricane Center records, no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake worldwide via U.S. Geological Survey data, no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption according to the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, and no meteor airburst exceeding 10 kilotons yield from NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. These extreme thresholds reflect rare phenomena—global M8.5+ quakes occur roughly once per decade, VEI ≥6 eruptions even less frequently—bolstered by neutral-to-below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University ahead of the June 1 start. Upcoming seasonal peaks and model updates could shift odds, though historical baselines favor continuation of the quiet trend.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volumen
$217,697Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus implies a 71.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the complete absence of such events through mid-May per authoritative sources: no Category 5 hurricane landfall on the U.S. per National Hurricane Center records, no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake worldwide via U.S. Geological Survey data, no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption according to the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, and no meteor airburst exceeding 10 kilotons yield from NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. These extreme thresholds reflect rare phenomena—global M8.5+ quakes occur roughly once per decade, VEI ≥6 eruptions even less frequently—bolstered by neutral-to-below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University ahead of the June 1 start. Upcoming seasonal peaks and model updates could shift odds, though historical baselines favor continuation of the quiet trend.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volumen
$217,697Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 71.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the complete absence of such events through mid-May per authoritative sources: no Category 5 hurricane landfall on the U.S. per National Hurricane Center records, no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake worldwide via U.S. Geological Survey data, no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption according to the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, and no meteor airburst exceeding 10 kilotons yield from NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. These extreme thresholds reflect rare phenomena—global M8.5+ quakes occur roughly once per decade, VEI ≥6 eruptions even less frequently—bolstered by neutral-to-below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University ahead of the June 1 start. Upcoming seasonal peaks and model updates could shift odds, though historical baselines favor continuation of the quiet trend.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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