Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Congressional Budget Office projects 2.2% expansion for the year, while the IMF and private forecasters such as Vanguard and J.P. Morgan anticipate 2.0–2.3% real GDP growth, supported by resilient consumer spending, robust business investment in AI-driven productivity, and fiscal tailwinds. Second-quarter 2026 GDP rose 1.5% annualized after a 2.1% first-quarter gain, with private domestic final purchases remaining solid. Trader consensus reflects this base case of above-trend but moderating growth amid a federal funds rate near 3.5%. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sharper energy-price spikes from geopolitical shocks or an abrupt labor-market deterioration pushing unemployment above 5% and tipping activity into contraction.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNegatives BIP-Wachstum im Jahr 2026?
Negatives BIP-Wachstum im Jahr 2026?
Ja
4% Chance
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
28. Jan. 2027
Ja
4% Chance
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
28. Jan. 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Congressional Budget Office projects 2.2% expansion for the year, while the IMF and private forecasters such as Vanguard and J.P. Morgan anticipate 2.0–2.3% real GDP growth, supported by resilient consumer spending, robust business investment in AI-driven productivity, and fiscal tailwinds. Second-quarter 2026 GDP rose 1.5% annualized after a 2.1% first-quarter gain, with private domestic final purchases remaining solid. Trader consensus reflects this base case of above-trend but moderating growth amid a federal funds rate near 3.5%. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sharper energy-price spikes from geopolitical shocks or an abrupt labor-market deterioration pushing unemployment above 5% and tipping activity into contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volumen
$32,234Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Congressional Budget Office projects 2.2% expansion for the year, while the IMF and private forecasters such as Vanguard and J.P. Morgan anticipate 2.0–2.3% real GDP growth, supported by resilient consumer spending, robust business investment in AI-driven productivity, and fiscal tailwinds. Second-quarter 2026 GDP rose 1.5% annualized after a 2.1% first-quarter gain, with private domestic final purchases remaining solid. Trader consensus reflects this base case of above-trend but moderating growth amid a federal funds rate near 3.5%. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sharper energy-price spikes from geopolitical shocks or an abrupt labor-market deterioration pushing unemployment above 5% and tipping activity into contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volumen
$32,234Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Congressional Budget Office projects 2.2% expansion for the year, while the IMF and private forecasters such as Vanguard and J.P. Morgan anticipate 2.0–2.3% real GDP growth, supported by resilient consumer spending, robust business investment in AI-driven productivity, and fiscal tailwinds. Second-quarter 2026 GDP rose 1.5% annualized after a 2.1% first-quarter gain, with private domestic final purchases remaining solid. Trader consensus reflects this base case of above-trend but moderating growth amid a federal funds rate near 3.5%. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sharper energy-price spikes from geopolitical shocks or an abrupt labor-market deterioration pushing unemployment above 5% and tipping activity into contraction.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen