Strong first-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 2.0 percent annualized, alongside broad consensus forecasts projecting full-year expansion between 1.8 and 2.5 percent, drives the 93.8 percent market-implied probability against negative real GDP growth in 2026. Official projections from the Congressional Budget Office at 2.2 percent, the IMF at 2.4 percent, and the Philadelphia Fed survey at 2.5 percent reflect resilient business investment in AI-related equipment, fiscal support from prior tax measures, and a labor market that has stabilized near 4.5 percent unemployment. While downside risks from sustained tariff pressures or sharper consumer weakness could still materialize, current leading indicators and policy baselines point to moderate positive growth rather than contraction.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNegatives BIP-Wachstum im Jahr 2026?
Negatives BIP-Wachstum im Jahr 2026?
Ja
$26,508 Vol.
$26,508 Vol.
29. Jan. 2027
Ja
$26,508 Vol.
$26,508 Vol.
29. Jan. 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong first-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 2.0 percent annualized, alongside broad consensus forecasts projecting full-year expansion between 1.8 and 2.5 percent, drives the 93.8 percent market-implied probability against negative real GDP growth in 2026. Official projections from the Congressional Budget Office at 2.2 percent, the IMF at 2.4 percent, and the Philadelphia Fed survey at 2.5 percent reflect resilient business investment in AI-related equipment, fiscal support from prior tax measures, and a labor market that has stabilized near 4.5 percent unemployment. While downside risks from sustained tariff pressures or sharper consumer weakness could still materialize, current leading indicators and policy baselines point to moderate positive growth rather than contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volumen
$26,508Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong first-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 2.0 percent annualized, alongside broad consensus forecasts projecting full-year expansion between 1.8 and 2.5 percent, drives the 93.8 percent market-implied probability against negative real GDP growth in 2026. Official projections from the Congressional Budget Office at 2.2 percent, the IMF at 2.4 percent, and the Philadelphia Fed survey at 2.5 percent reflect resilient business investment in AI-related equipment, fiscal support from prior tax measures, and a labor market that has stabilized near 4.5 percent unemployment. While downside risks from sustained tariff pressures or sharper consumer weakness could still materialize, current leading indicators and policy baselines point to moderate positive growth rather than contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volumen
$26,508Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong first-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 2.0 percent annualized, alongside broad consensus forecasts projecting full-year expansion between 1.8 and 2.5 percent, drives the 93.8 percent market-implied probability against negative real GDP growth in 2026. Official projections from the Congressional Budget Office at 2.2 percent, the IMF at 2.4 percent, and the Philadelphia Fed survey at 2.5 percent reflect resilient business investment in AI-related equipment, fiscal support from prior tax measures, and a labor market that has stabilized near 4.5 percent unemployment. While downside risks from sustained tariff pressures or sharper consumer weakness could still materialize, current leading indicators and policy baselines point to moderate positive growth rather than contraction.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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