Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin has shown no signs of an organized coup attempt through mid-August 2026, supporting trader consensus on low probability. Putin’s consolidated authoritarian control, reinforced by his 2024 reelection and constitutional term-limit reset extending potential rule to 2036, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against a 2026 coup attempt. Elite networks remain balanced with no designated successor or evident fractures, while state pollster approval ratings have stayed elevated near or above 70% despite wartime strains. Reports from May 2026 citing European intelligence on tightened Federal Protective Service measures and bunker use amid assassination or plot fears represented the clearest recent signal of Kremlin nervousness, yet these precautions produced no visible elite challenge or institutional shift. Detentions of critical milbloggers, including a prominent propagandist in July, further illustrate effective suppression of dissent without triggering broader instability. Traders price the absence of concrete precursors—such as open military defections, high-level defections, or public power struggles—as decisive through year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert7% Chance
$126,094 Vol.
$126,094 Vol.
30. Dez. 2026
7% Chance
$126,094 Vol.
$126,094 Vol.
30. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin has shown no signs of an organized coup attempt through mid-August 2026, supporting trader consensus on low probability. Putin’s consolidated authoritarian control, reinforced by his 2024 reelection and constitutional term-limit reset extending potential rule to 2036, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against a 2026 coup attempt. Elite networks remain balanced with no designated successor or evident fractures, while state pollster approval ratings have stayed elevated near or above 70% despite wartime strains. Reports from May 2026 citing European intelligence on tightened Federal Protective Service measures and bunker use amid assassination or plot fears represented the clearest recent signal of Kremlin nervousness, yet these precautions produced no visible elite challenge or institutional shift. Detentions of critical milbloggers, including a prominent propagandist in July, further illustrate effective suppression of dissent without triggering broader instability. Traders price the absence of concrete precursors—such as open military defections, high-level defections, or public power struggles—as decisive through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volumen
$126,094Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin has shown no signs of an organized coup attempt through mid-August 2026, supporting trader consensus on low probability. Putin’s consolidated authoritarian control, reinforced by his 2024 reelection and constitutional term-limit reset extending potential rule to 2036, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against a 2026 coup attempt. Elite networks remain balanced with no designated successor or evident fractures, while state pollster approval ratings have stayed elevated near or above 70% despite wartime strains. Reports from May 2026 citing European intelligence on tightened Federal Protective Service measures and bunker use amid assassination or plot fears represented the clearest recent signal of Kremlin nervousness, yet these precautions produced no visible elite challenge or institutional shift. Detentions of critical milbloggers, including a prominent propagandist in July, further illustrate effective suppression of dissent without triggering broader instability. Traders price the absence of concrete precursors—such as open military defections, high-level defections, or public power struggles—as decisive through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$126,094Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin has shown no signs of an organized coup attempt through mid-August 2026, supporting trader consensus on low probability. Putin’s consolidated authoritarian control, reinforced by his 2024 reelection and constitutional term-limit reset extending potential rule to 2036, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against a 2026 coup attempt. Elite networks remain balanced with no designated successor or evident fractures, while state pollster approval ratings have stayed elevated near or above 70% despite wartime strains. Reports from May 2026 citing European intelligence on tightened Federal Protective Service measures and bunker use amid assassination or plot fears represented the clearest recent signal of Kremlin nervousness, yet these precautions produced no visible elite challenge or institutional shift. Detentions of critical milbloggers, including a prominent propagandist in July, further illustrate effective suppression of dissent without triggering broader instability. Traders price the absence of concrete precursors—such as open military defections, high-level defections, or public power struggles—as decisive through year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen