Preliminary vote counts from Russia's September 18–20 State Duma election place the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) in third position behind United Russia and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF), consistent with the market's 88.5% implied probability for LDPR. Official Central Election Commission data after processing roughly half the protocols show LDPR at approximately 8.8%, ahead of New People at 7.9% and A Just Russia at 5.1%, with all systemic opposition parties clearing the 5% threshold. Earlier polling had shown New People occasionally challenging for second or third amid fluctuations in support, yet final tallies and single-mandate trends have reinforced LDPR's established placement. Remaining protocols and seat allocation from constituencies could still affect exact margins, though current patterns align with trader consensus on the third-place outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertRussia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 91%
New People (NL) 6%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) <1%
United Russia (ER) <1%
$243,853 Vol.
$243,853 Vol.

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
91%

New People (NL)
6%

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
1%

United Russia (ER)
<1%

A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
<1%

Rodina
<1%

Civic Platform (GP)
<1%

Jabloko
<1%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 91%
New People (NL) 6%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) <1%
United Russia (ER) <1%
$243,853 Vol.
$243,853 Vol.

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
91%

New People (NL)
6%

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
1%

United Russia (ER)
<1%

A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
<1%

Rodina
<1%

Civic Platform (GP)
<1%

Jabloko
<1%
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 21, 2026, 3:42 PM ET
Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary vote counts from Russia's September 18–20 State Duma election place the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) in third position behind United Russia and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF), consistent with the market's 88.5% implied probability for LDPR. Official Central Election Commission data after processing roughly half the protocols show LDPR at approximately 8.8%, ahead of New People at 7.9% and A Just Russia at 5.1%, with all systemic opposition parties clearing the 5% threshold. Earlier polling had shown New People occasionally challenging for second or third amid fluctuations in support, yet final tallies and single-mandate trends have reinforced LDPR's established placement. Remaining protocols and seat allocation from constituencies could still affect exact margins, though current patterns align with trader consensus on the third-place outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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