The September 3, 2026 by-election results position Liberal candidate Ahsanul Hafiz firmly in second place behind NDP frontrunner Fatima Shaban, aligning with pre-vote polling averages and the riding's recent history of NDP strength. Shaban benefited from established party support on local issues such as housing and affordability following Doly Begum's resignation, while Hafiz consolidated Liberal backing after securing the nomination and leveraging his business and community profile. Progressive Conservative candidate Noor Tarun and others trailed further back, limiting challenges to the middle position. Official Elections Ontario tallies would need substantial adjustments from reported shares or an unforeseen surge by a minor contender to alter the outcome, though such shifts remain improbable given the confirmed margins.