Recent polling averages place the PSOE on roughly 26-28% of the vote ahead of the November 29 election, projecting 104-113 seats under Spain’s D’Hondt system once regional distributions and the left’s fragmentation are factored in. The Broad Front and Podemos running separately in most provinces has reduced the combined left’s efficiency, limiting PSOE gains relative to 2023. Multiple November surveys show modest PSOE recovery after the Urda train incident and the transport minister’s resignation, yet PP-Vox combinations remain on track for a clear majority. Trader consensus on the 108-113 and 114-119 buckets reflects this narrow band of outcomes across the latest aggregators, with the right bloc’s strength capping upside scenarios.