No official confirmation of US military kamikaze dolphins has emerged, with Pentagon statements during early May briefings explicitly ruling out any Iranian program while describing US Navy Marine Mammal Program activities as limited to mine detection, harbor security, and intruder tracking rather than explosive offensive roles. The absence of declassification announcements, legislative disclosures, or credible reporting on suicide-style dolphin operations leaves no pathway for verification before the May 31 deadline. Traders assign near-certainty to the “No” outcome because 15 days offers insufficient time for institutional processes to produce verifiable evidence, and existing public records show only non-lethal applications. A sudden executive statement or leaked document could theoretically shift odds, though historical patterns indicate classified programs rarely surface on such short notice.