Iran's insistence on retaining its right to uranium enrichment as a core element of its nuclear program has kept the probability of a public agreement to end all such activities by May 31 at just 5.5 percent. In recent weeks, indirect U.S.-Iran talks mediated through third parties have featured American proposals for a 20-year moratorium, which Tehran countered with shorter pauses, offers to discuss down-blending of its highly enriched uranium stockpile, and explicit refusals to dismantle facilities or forgo enrichment entirely. Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, have reiterated enrichment as non-negotiable, while IAEA reports confirm ongoing stockpile growth and no verified halt. With the deadline two weeks away and no major concession or joint statement emerging, traders see limited scope for a sudden reversal absent an unforeseen breakthrough in the final days of negotiations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertStimmt der Iran zu, die Anreicherung von Uran bis zum 31. Mai zu beenden?
Stimmt der Iran zu, die Anreicherung von Uran bis zum 31. Mai zu beenden?
Ja
$615,211 Vol.
$615,211 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
Ja
$615,211 Vol.
$615,211 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's insistence on retaining its right to uranium enrichment as a core element of its nuclear program has kept the probability of a public agreement to end all such activities by May 31 at just 5.5 percent. In recent weeks, indirect U.S.-Iran talks mediated through third parties have featured American proposals for a 20-year moratorium, which Tehran countered with shorter pauses, offers to discuss down-blending of its highly enriched uranium stockpile, and explicit refusals to dismantle facilities or forgo enrichment entirely. Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, have reiterated enrichment as non-negotiable, while IAEA reports confirm ongoing stockpile growth and no verified halt. With the deadline two weeks away and no major concession or joint statement emerging, traders see limited scope for a sudden reversal absent an unforeseen breakthrough in the final days of negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ET
Volumen
$615,211Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's insistence on retaining its right to uranium enrichment as a core element of its nuclear program has kept the probability of a public agreement to end all such activities by May 31 at just 5.5 percent. In recent weeks, indirect U.S.-Iran talks mediated through third parties have featured American proposals for a 20-year moratorium, which Tehran countered with shorter pauses, offers to discuss down-blending of its highly enriched uranium stockpile, and explicit refusals to dismantle facilities or forgo enrichment entirely. Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, have reiterated enrichment as non-negotiable, while IAEA reports confirm ongoing stockpile growth and no verified halt. With the deadline two weeks away and no major concession or joint statement emerging, traders see limited scope for a sudden reversal absent an unforeseen breakthrough in the final days of negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$615,211Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's insistence on retaining its right to uranium enrichment as a core element of its nuclear program has kept the probability of a public agreement to end all such activities by May 31 at just 5.5 percent. In recent weeks, indirect U.S.-Iran talks mediated through third parties have featured American proposals for a 20-year moratorium, which Tehran countered with shorter pauses, offers to discuss down-blending of its highly enriched uranium stockpile, and explicit refusals to dismantle facilities or forgo enrichment entirely. Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, have reiterated enrichment as non-negotiable, while IAEA reports confirm ongoing stockpile growth and no verified halt. With the deadline two weeks away and no major concession or joint statement emerging, traders see limited scope for a sudden reversal absent an unforeseen breakthrough in the final days of negotiations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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