European leaders from France, the United Kingdom, and Germany have consistently prioritized diplomatic initiatives and proportionate defensive measures since the escalation of regional tensions earlier this year. Recent deployments of assets such as the French carrier strike group and the UK destroyer HMS Dragon focus on securing navigation through the Strait of Hormuz through multinational coordination rather than offensive operations against Iranian territory. Joint statements have condemned missile and drone attacks while underscoring calls for negotiated solutions and avoidance of broader involvement. This alignment of political constraints, domestic priorities, and alliance dynamics underpins trader consensus on the low likelihood of a strike by June 30. A direct Iranian attack on European forces or bases remains the primary development that could shift assessments before the deadline.