Recent arrests of Iranian nationals for sanctions violations and migrant smuggling have not included the specific allegations of acting as government-directed agents in espionage or covert operations required to resolve the market yes, keeping trader consensus closely balanced near even odds. No qualifying federal or state charges have been announced since early April, leaving minimal time before the May 31 deadline. Ongoing diplomatic engagement between Washington and Tehran has further reduced expectations for near-term escalatory law enforcement actions. An unsealed indictment alleging Iranian government agency in intelligence collection or related covert activity could quickly move probabilities, while the continued absence of such developments would reinforce the current equilibrium.