President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, citing opacity around Russian and Chinese activities, remains the central driver of market pricing. Officials have since clarified that implementation is still under review, with no decision on full-yield underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on such tests since 1992, and restoring readiness for yield-producing detonations faces technical, budgetary, and congressional constraints that historically require 24–36 months. Subcritical and non-explosive experiments continue under stockpile stewardship programs, but these do not resolve markets focused on explosive events. Upcoming congressional appropriations debates and any new diplomatic signals from Beijing or Moscow could shift implied probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertUS-Atomtest von...?
US-Atomtest von...?
$768,767 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
30. September 2026
1%
31. Dezember 2026
4%
$768,767 Vol.
30. September 2026
$57,189 Vol.
1%
31. Dezember 2026
$50,767 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, citing opacity around Russian and Chinese activities, remains the central driver of market pricing. Officials have since clarified that implementation is still under review, with no decision on full-yield underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on such tests since 1992, and restoring readiness for yield-producing detonations faces technical, budgetary, and congressional constraints that historically require 24–36 months. Subcritical and non-explosive experiments continue under stockpile stewardship programs, but these do not resolve markets focused on explosive events. Upcoming congressional appropriations debates and any new diplomatic signals from Beijing or Moscow could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volumen
$768,767Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, citing opacity around Russian and Chinese activities, remains the central driver of market pricing. Officials have since clarified that implementation is still under review, with no decision on full-yield underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on such tests since 1992, and restoring readiness for yield-producing detonations faces technical, budgetary, and congressional constraints that historically require 24–36 months. Subcritical and non-explosive experiments continue under stockpile stewardship programs, but these do not resolve markets focused on explosive events. Upcoming congressional appropriations debates and any new diplomatic signals from Beijing or Moscow could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$768,767Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, citing opacity around Russian and Chinese activities, remains the central driver of market pricing. Officials have since clarified that implementation is still under review, with no decision on full-yield underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on such tests since 1992, and restoring readiness for yield-producing detonations faces technical, budgetary, and congressional constraints that historically require 24–36 months. Subcritical and non-explosive experiments continue under stockpile stewardship programs, but these do not resolve markets focused on explosive events. Upcoming congressional appropriations debates and any new diplomatic signals from Beijing or Moscow could shift implied probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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