**The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, with readiness timelines for resumption at the Nevada National Security Site estimated at 24–36 months or longer due to infrastructure, regulatory, environmental, and safety requirements.** In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to begin testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with other nations, citing concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, though subsequent clarifications from the Department of Energy indicated no plans for actual nuclear explosions at that time and emphasized subcritical or non-explosive experiments instead. Congressional measures to require legislative approval for any resumption, bipartisan state-level opposition in Nevada, and the absence of new explosive tests have reinforced trader consensus reflected in low market probabilities for a U.S. test by late 2026. Key variables that could influence outcomes include funding decisions for the stockpile stewardship program, any presidential national emergency declarations, arms control talks with Russia or China, or shifts in perceived adversary testing activities before the resolution windows.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertUS-Atomtest von...?
US-Atomtest von...?
$770,068 Vol.
29. Sep. 2026
30. September 2026
1%
31. Dezember 2026
4%
$770,068 Vol.
30. September 2026
$57,189 Vol.
1%
31. Dezember 2026
$52,068 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, with readiness timelines for resumption at the Nevada National Security Site estimated at 24–36 months or longer due to infrastructure, regulatory, environmental, and safety requirements.** In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to begin testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with other nations, citing concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, though subsequent clarifications from the Department of Energy indicated no plans for actual nuclear explosions at that time and emphasized subcritical or non-explosive experiments instead.
Congressional measures to require legislative approval for any resumption, bipartisan state-level opposition in Nevada, and the absence of new explosive tests have reinforced trader consensus reflected in low market probabilities for a U.S. test by late 2026. Key variables that could influence outcomes include funding decisions for the stockpile stewardship program, any presidential national emergency declarations, arms control talks with Russia or China, or shifts in perceived adversary testing activities before the resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volumen
$770,068Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, with readiness timelines for resumption at the Nevada National Security Site estimated at 24–36 months or longer due to infrastructure, regulatory, environmental, and safety requirements.** In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to begin testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with other nations, citing concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, though subsequent clarifications from the Department of Energy indicated no plans for actual nuclear explosions at that time and emphasized subcritical or non-explosive experiments instead.
Congressional measures to require legislative approval for any resumption, bipartisan state-level opposition in Nevada, and the absence of new explosive tests have reinforced trader consensus reflected in low market probabilities for a U.S. test by late 2026. Key variables that could influence outcomes include funding decisions for the stockpile stewardship program, any presidential national emergency declarations, arms control talks with Russia or China, or shifts in perceived adversary testing activities before the resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$770,068Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, with readiness timelines for resumption at the Nevada National Security Site estimated at 24–36 months or longer due to infrastructure, regulatory, environmental, and safety requirements.** In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to begin testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with other nations, citing concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, though subsequent clarifications from the Department of Energy indicated no plans for actual nuclear explosions at that time and emphasized subcritical or non-explosive experiments instead. Congressional measures to require legislative approval for any resumption, bipartisan state-level opposition in Nevada, and the absence of new explosive tests have reinforced trader consensus reflected in low market probabilities for a U.S. test by late 2026. Key variables that could influence outcomes include funding decisions for the stockpile stewardship program, any presidential national emergency declarations, arms control talks with Russia or China, or shifts in perceived adversary testing activities before the resolution windows.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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