Recent monthly data show the U.S. goods and services trade deficit holding near $57–60 billion, with March widening modestly on stronger imports of autos, consumer goods, and capital equipment offset by rising energy exports. Elevated tariffs enacted in 2025 continue to suppress import volumes and boost customs revenue, while exports recover from earlier supply-chain shifts and foreign demand rebounds. These countervailing forces keep the full-year 2026 outcome tightly contested between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges, as traders weigh how quickly domestic production ramps up, whether new trade measures emerge, and how GDP growth influences overall import demand. Further clarity on tariff enforcement or global economic conditions could shift probabilities before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$20,985 Vol.
$20,985 Vol.
28. Feb. 2027
<500 Mrd.
7%
500–600 Mrd.
6%
600–700 Mrd.
5%
700–800 Mrd.
9%
800–900 Mrd.
46%
900 Mrd.–1 Bio.
37%
1 Bio.–1,1 Bio.
9%
1,1+ Billionen
5%
$20,985 Vol.
$20,985 Vol.
28. Feb. 2027
<500 Mrd.
$16,637 Vol.
7%
500–600 Mrd.
$413 Vol.
6%
600–700 Mrd.
$435 Vol.
5%
700–800 Mrd.
$456 Vol.
9%
800–900 Mrd.
$1,008 Vol.
46%
900 Mrd.–1 Bio.
$971 Vol.
37%
1 Bio.–1,1 Bio.
$441 Vol.
9%
1,1+ Billionen
$624 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly data show the U.S. goods and services trade deficit holding near $57–60 billion, with March widening modestly on stronger imports of autos, consumer goods, and capital equipment offset by rising energy exports. Elevated tariffs enacted in 2025 continue to suppress import volumes and boost customs revenue, while exports recover from earlier supply-chain shifts and foreign demand rebounds. These countervailing forces keep the full-year 2026 outcome tightly contested between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges, as traders weigh how quickly domestic production ramps up, whether new trade measures emerge, and how GDP growth influences overall import demand. Further clarity on tariff enforcement or global economic conditions could shift probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$20,985Enddatum
28. Feb. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly data show the U.S. goods and services trade deficit holding near $57–60 billion, with March widening modestly on stronger imports of autos, consumer goods, and capital equipment offset by rising energy exports. Elevated tariffs enacted in 2025 continue to suppress import volumes and boost customs revenue, while exports recover from earlier supply-chain shifts and foreign demand rebounds. These countervailing forces keep the full-year 2026 outcome tightly contested between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges, as traders weigh how quickly domestic production ramps up, whether new trade measures emerge, and how GDP growth influences overall import demand. Further clarity on tariff enforcement or global economic conditions could shift probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volumen
$20,985Enddatum
28. Feb. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly data show the U.S. goods and services trade deficit holding near $57–60 billion, with March widening modestly on stronger imports of autos, consumer goods, and capital equipment offset by rising energy exports. Elevated tariffs enacted in 2025 continue to suppress import volumes and boost customs revenue, while exports recover from earlier supply-chain shifts and foreign demand rebounds. These countervailing forces keep the full-year 2026 outcome tightly contested between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges, as traders weigh how quickly domestic production ramps up, whether new trade measures emerge, and how GDP growth influences overall import demand. Further clarity on tariff enforcement or global economic conditions could shift probabilities before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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