Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, driven by Iranian threats to commercial shipping and U.S. responses including strikes on shadow-fleet tankers, have elevated naval activity and oil-price volatility. Brent crude has traded near $100–106 per barrel amid roughly 10–20 million barrels per day of disrupted flows, with partial offsets from Saudi pipelines, IEA releases, and demand compression. Markets price in sustained risk premia reflecting insurance costs, rerouting expenses, and potential further supply shortfalls. Key catalysts ahead include U.S.-Iran deconfliction talks, Oman-mediated corridor proposals, and any additional deployments by the U.S. Fifth Fleet or allies to escort energy cargoes through year-end. Trader sentiment reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of how these dynamics affect energy benchmarks and maritime security through December 31.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWelche Länder werden bis zum 31. Dezember Kriegsschiffe durch die Straße von Hormus schicken?
Welche Länder werden bis zum 31. Dezember Kriegsschiffe durch die Straße von Hormus schicken?
$49,110 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
USA
26%
Australien
19%
Vereinigtes Königreich
12%
Italien
19%
Frankreich
9%
Deutschland
9%
Griechenland
11%
Niederlande
5%
$49,110 Vol.
USA
$18,250 Vol.
26%
Australien
$0 Vol.
19%
Vereinigtes Königreich
$134 Vol.
12%
Italien
$52 Vol.
19%
Frankreich
$14,147 Vol.
9%
Deutschland
$18 Vol.
9%
Griechenland
$52 Vol.
11%
Niederlande
$16,457 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, driven by Iranian threats to commercial shipping and U.S. responses including strikes on shadow-fleet tankers, have elevated naval activity and oil-price volatility. Brent crude has traded near $100–106 per barrel amid roughly 10–20 million barrels per day of disrupted flows, with partial offsets from Saudi pipelines, IEA releases, and demand compression. Markets price in sustained risk premia reflecting insurance costs, rerouting expenses, and potential further supply shortfalls. Key catalysts ahead include U.S.-Iran deconfliction talks, Oman-mediated corridor proposals, and any additional deployments by the U.S. Fifth Fleet or allies to escort energy cargoes through year-end. Trader sentiment reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of how these dynamics affect energy benchmarks and maritime security through December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Volumen
$49,110Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, driven by Iranian threats to commercial shipping and U.S. responses including strikes on shadow-fleet tankers, have elevated naval activity and oil-price volatility. Brent crude has traded near $100–106 per barrel amid roughly 10–20 million barrels per day of disrupted flows, with partial offsets from Saudi pipelines, IEA releases, and demand compression. Markets price in sustained risk premia reflecting insurance costs, rerouting expenses, and potential further supply shortfalls. Key catalysts ahead include U.S.-Iran deconfliction talks, Oman-mediated corridor proposals, and any additional deployments by the U.S. Fifth Fleet or allies to escort energy cargoes through year-end. Trader sentiment reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of how these dynamics affect energy benchmarks and maritime security through December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volumen
$49,110Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, driven by Iranian threats to commercial shipping and U.S. responses including strikes on shadow-fleet tankers, have elevated naval activity and oil-price volatility. Brent crude has traded near $100–106 per barrel amid roughly 10–20 million barrels per day of disrupted flows, with partial offsets from Saudi pipelines, IEA releases, and demand compression. Markets price in sustained risk premia reflecting insurance costs, rerouting expenses, and potential further supply shortfalls. Key catalysts ahead include U.S.-Iran deconfliction talks, Oman-mediated corridor proposals, and any additional deployments by the U.S. Fifth Fleet or allies to escort energy cargoes through year-end. Trader sentiment reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of how these dynamics affect energy benchmarks and maritime security through December 31.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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