Recent attacks on vessels and renewed U.S. threats of an indefinite naval blockade have driven trader consensus toward the 63.5% implied probability of no return to normal Strait of Hormuz traffic in 2026. Ongoing Iran-U.S. tensions, including strikes on ADNOC tankers in mid-August, have reduced daily transits to single digits against pre-disruption norms exceeding 100, elevating insurance costs and deterring energy shippers. Market-implied odds for August through November remain low at 1.5–12.5%, reflecting persistent security risks that could sustain elevated oil price volatility and supply chain premiums into year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertKeine Rückkehr zum normalen Verkehr im Jahr 2026 63%
September 13%
December 10%
October 8%
$296,971 Vol.
$296,971 Vol.
August
2%
September
13%
October
8%
November
8%
December
10%
Keine Rückkehr zum normalen Verkehr im Jahr 2026
63%
Keine Rückkehr zum normalen Verkehr im Jahr 2026 63%
September 13%
December 10%
October 8%
$296,971 Vol.
$296,971 Vol.
August
2%
September
13%
October
8%
November
8%
December
10%
Keine Rückkehr zum normalen Verkehr im Jahr 2026
63%
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 8, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent attacks on vessels and renewed U.S. threats of an indefinite naval blockade have driven trader consensus toward the 63.5% implied probability of no return to normal Strait of Hormuz traffic in 2026. Ongoing Iran-U.S. tensions, including strikes on ADNOC tankers in mid-August, have reduced daily transits to single digits against pre-disruption norms exceeding 100, elevating insurance costs and deterring energy shippers. Market-implied odds for August through November remain low at 1.5–12.5%, reflecting persistent security risks that could sustain elevated oil price volatility and supply chain premiums into year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert

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