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icon for Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
Politik·Trump

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

icon for Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
Politik·Trump

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Jan. 1, 2027

Jan. 1, 2027

None before 2027 61.9%

Mike Waltz 9.3%

Susie Wiles 8.1%

Pete Hegseth 7.6%

Polymarket

$69,237 Vol.

None before 2027 61.9%

Mike Waltz 9.3%

Susie Wiles 8.1%

Pete Hegseth 7.6%

Polymarket

$69,237 Vol.

None before 2027

$27,011 Vol.

62%

Mike Waltz

$1,000 Vol.

9%

Susie Wiles

$3,930 Vol.

8%

Pete Hegseth

$2,535 Vol.

8%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$19,359 Vol.

6%

Scott Bessent

$2,976 Vol.

4%

Doug Burgum

$1,125 Vol.

3%

John Ratcliffe

$716 Vol.

2%

Brooke Rollins

$934 Vol.

2%

Russell T. Vought

$695 Vol.

2%

Marco Rubio

$688 Vol.

2%

J.D. Vance

$730 Vol.

1%

Scott Turner

$489 Vol.

1%

Sean Duffy

$818 Vol.

1%

Chris Wright

$888 Vol.

1%

Linda McMahon

$1,094 Vol.

1%

Jamieson Greer

$682 Vol.

1%

Kelly Loeffler

$961 Vol.

1%

Howard Lutnick

$1,018 Vol.

1%

Doug Collins

$792 Vol.

1%

Lee Zeldin

$797 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 62% probability that no cabinet member departs before 2027, reflecting relative stability at the Senate-confirmed level after earlier 2026 exits such as Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer. Cabinet officials have concentrated on domestic travel to competitive midterm districts, delivering administration messaging on immigration enforcement, tariffs, and energy policy rather than signaling internal friction. Lower-probability names including Mike Waltz, Susie Wiles, Pete Hegseth, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. carry residual risk tied to prior operational scrutiny or policy friction, yet no confirmed announcements or Senate holds currently point to near-term departures. Historical patterns of second-term attrition and ongoing non-confirmed appointee turnover have not yet translated into additional cabinet-level changes within the resolution window.

This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.

An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.

If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volumen
$69,237
Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027
Markt eröffnet
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 62% probability that no cabinet member departs before 2027, reflecting relative stability at the Senate-confirmed level after earlier 2026 exits such as Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer. Cabinet officials have concentrated on domestic travel to competitive midterm districts, delivering administration messaging on immigration enforcement, tariffs, and energy policy rather than signaling internal friction. Lower-probability names including Mike Waltz, Susie Wiles, Pete Hegseth, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. carry residual risk tied to prior operational scrutiny or policy friction, yet no confirmed announcements or Senate holds currently point to near-term departures. Historical patterns of second-term attrition and ongoing non-confirmed appointee turnover have not yet translated into additional cabinet-level changes within the resolution window.

This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.

An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.

If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volumen
$69,237
Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027
Markt eröffnet
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...

Verwandte

icon for Will 5 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?

Will 5 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?

42%
icon for Wird Dan Scavino die Trump-Regierung vor 2027 verlassen?

Wird Dan Scavino die Trump-Regierung vor 2027 verlassen?

30%
Ja
icon for Wird John Healey als Erster das Kabinett Burnham verlassen?

Wird John Healey als Erster das Kabinett Burnham verlassen?

14%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 21 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „None before 2027" mit 62%, gefolgt von „Mike Waltz" mit 9%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 62¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 62% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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