**Mitch McConnell has publicly committed to completing his Senate term, which ends January 3, 2027, after announcing in February 2025 that he would not seek reelection.** This explicit pledge, combined with the absence of any subsequent statements indicating a change in plans, underpins the 83.5% implied probability that he will not step down early. Recent health developments include a June 2026 fall resulting in brief unconsciousness and pneumonia, followed by hospitalization and rehabilitation; McConnell was discharged to home recovery by early August and stated he would continue engaging with staff and colleagues remotely while undergoing physical therapy. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear has pressed for health updates and suggested resignation if capacity is lacking, but McConnell’s office has provided no signals of intent to vacate the seat. Kentucky’s vacancy rules require a special election rather than gubernatorial appointment, and the timeline makes an early contest logistically challenging before the already-scheduled 2026 general election for the successor. Traders appear to weigh McConnell’s consistent messaging and incentives to finish the term—avoiding a risky special election process—against ongoing health scrutiny, viewing early departure as unlikely absent a dramatic deterioration. Scheduled Senate business through the fall and winter provides additional context, with no confirmed developments that would force resignation before term expiration.